Climate Change News
Below are news items on climate change – many with relevance to aviation
BEIS minister admits UK aviation CO2 emissions will not be kept below necessary 37.5MtCO2 level
Replying to a parliamentary question from Zac Goldsmith, BEIS minister Claire Perry revealed that there is no government intention to stick to the limit of 37.5MtCO2 by 2050, as recommended by the government's advisors, the Committee on Climate Change. Zac Goldsmith's question: "To ask the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, with reference to page 85 of the Government's Clean Growth Strategy, what estimate he has made of the actual and projected emissions for the aviation sector for (a) 2030, (b) 2040 and (c) 2050; and what estimate he has made of the required level of aviation emissions if emissions from transport need to be as low as 3 Mt by 2050." Claire Perry's reply: "Latest BEIS data shows that carbon dioxide emissions from UK departing flights in 2015 were 34.5 Mt. DfT’s October 2017 aviation forecasts give CO2 emissions from UK departing flights of between 36.6 and 45.7Mt in 2030; between 36.3 and 45.1Mt in 2040; and between 35.0 and 44.3Mt in 2050, depending on demand scenario and airport capacity options. The Government will set out its strategic approach to the aviation sector in a series of consultations leading to the publication of a new Aviation Strategy for the UK. The Strategy will consider what the best approach and combination of policy measures are to ensure we effectively address carbon emissions from aviation."
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Flying home for Christmas? Carbon offsets are important, but they won’t fix plane CO2
Australians fly a lot, and though they are just 0.3% of the global population, they contribute 2.7% of global aviation carbon emissions. The peak month of air travel in and out of Australia is December, when people travel to see friends and family, or to go on holiday. An article by two Australian academics looks at whether carbon offsets do much to reduce the problem. They conclude that many schemes fail to offer scientifically robust explanations and accredited mechanisms that ensure that the money spent on an offset generates some real climate benefits. The main problem is that the CO2 from the flight is still released into the atmosphere, despite buying a carbon credit. The concept of “carbon neutral” promoted by airline offsets means that an equal amount of emissions is avoided elsewhere, but it does not mean there is no carbon being emitted at all. Carbon offsetting will not reduce overall CO2 emissions. Trading emissions means that we are merely maintaining status quo. However, a steep reduction in CO2 is what’s required by every sector if we were to reach the net-zero emissions goal by 2050, agreed on in the Paris Agreement. The CORSIA scheme comes into force in 2021, using carbon offsets, but ultimately the aviation sector, just like all others, will have to reduce its own emissions. This will most probably mean a contraction in the fast expanding global aviation market.
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Brexit & aviation: Suggestions by T&E on what is the best scenario for the environment?
Since the creation of the European Single Aviation Market, the UK and its airlines have greatly benefited for decades from full access to the European market. This access will cease to exist on 29 March 2019 - in the absence of an agreement. Given the current state of Brexit negotiations, the possibility of not reaching a future deal on the aviation relationship would greatly harm the industry, consumers and, particularly, the environment. While the UK has expressed its desire to retain full access to the Single Aviation Market for its airlines after Brexit, it has failed to define how it wants to attain this. Full access is conditional upon accepting the whole body of EU law and recognising ECJ oversight. A new report by T&E makes 4 key recommendations if the UK wishes to retain the same level of access to the European aviation market which it currently enjoys. On the environment this says the UK must remain in the EU aviation Emissions Trading System (ETS). This would ensure a smooth transition and continuity on tackling climate change. Also, the EU State aid rules must continue to apply to the UK, so the UK cannot invest in airport infrastructure and operators to the detriment of the environment (and competition).
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“We can live with this”: How Europe allowed Airbus to write its own CO2 rules
Transport & Environment (T&E) report that e-mail exchanges between the European Commission (EC) and Airbus show how the company was offered privileged access to the EU decision-making process, allowing it to write its own environmental rules. Emails released to T&E after an 18 month-long appeal process confirm that when drafting CO2 rules for aircraft, the EC – the regulator – gave Airbus (the regulated company) – privileged access to the EU decision-making process and allowed Airbus to determine the EU position. The result is a standard which does nothing to cut carbon emissions. The CO2 emissions from aircraft are not regulated, which is a key reason why the sector's CO2 continues to soar. In late 2016 ICAO finally agreed a very weak global deal (CORSIA) that - under heavy influence from the aviation industry, requires them to make no changes to their plans. But instead of genuinely attempting to push Airbus and Boeing to speed up emission cuts and efficiency gains, the EU executive worked closely with Airbus to ensure the new rules would have no impact. Andrew Murphy, from T&E, explains how Airbus got to write its own regulations, so the standards were in line with what suited Airbus. Instead, carbon policies need to be decided in a fair and transparent manner.
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Willie Walsh says aviation climate goals through CORSIA insufficient
Aviation’s global climate goals are not enough in the long term, according to IAG boss Willie Walsh, who said the sector eventually faces being suppressed by governments if it cannot achieve environmental sustainability. He believes that though having to submit to the CORSIA scheme will cost airlines some money, the alternative would be much more expensive. That is why the scheme has been accepted by most airlines - it allows pretty much "business as usual" for years. Walsh says all airlines will have to join the scheme in due course, by 2027, though the first years after 2021 are voluntary. He believes there are benefits for the airlines that join in the early days, gaining experience of carbon trading - for when all airlines have to take part and buy carbon credits. Walsh appears to realise that if the aviation sector does not get a grip on its rising carbon emissions, and make CORSIA work, it might face worse restrictions if the world tries to meet goals of the Paris Agreement. He does not believe CORSIA alone is enough in the longer term, and the industry will have to have great carbon reduction ambition for the future after 2035.
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Large group of Dutch scientists demands end to crop-based biofuels in the EU
A group of 177 Dutch scientists have signed a letter urging the Netherlands to back a complete phase-out of crop-based biofuels at European level, calling them a “false solution to climate problems”. According to the EU's own data, the climate impact of biodiesel is on average 80% worse than fossil diesel. The EU study found that crop-based biodiesel has on average 1.8 times the climate impact of fossil diesel, “and this number increases to 3 times more in the case of biodiesel from palm oil”. Biodiesel accounts for 80% of all biofuels used in the EU, and around a third of this comes from palm oil, making drivers of cars and trucks the biggest consumers of palm oil in Europe. The remaining 20% is bioethanol, which is mainly made from home-grown crops such as sugar beet and wheat. The biofuels industry - predictably - is not pleased and claim the move would "slash investment in advanced biofuels." The push for ever more biofuels from plants is driving habitat and biodiversity loss, reducing areas’ resilience to local climatic conditions, undermining food security and increasing prices, and concentrating land in the hands of multinational companies at the expense of small-scale farmers. EU governments will discuss the future of biofuels at the Energy Council meeting on 18 December. These fuels should never be allowed for the aviation sector.
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Mayor’s Draft London Plan, out to consultation, adamant that aviation’s noise, CO2 and air pollution stay within limits
The Mayor of London has put out for consultation the New Draft London Plan (ends 2 March 2018). There is an extensive section on aviation, with the Mayor adamant that the aviation sector, and any airport expansion, must stay within environmental limits. The Policy T8 Aviation (P 433 of the consultation document) sets out core principles. These include: D. The Mayor will oppose the expansion of Heathrow Airport unless it can be shown that no additional noise or air quality harm would result, and that the benefits of future regulatory and technology improvements would be fairly shared with affected communities. E. All airport expansion proposals should demonstrate how public transport and other surface access networks would accommodate resulting increases in demand alongside forecast background growth; this should include credible plans by the airport for funding and delivery of the required infrastructure. F. Proposals that would lead to changes in airport operations or air traffic movements must take full account of their environmental impacts and the views of affected communities. Any changes to London’s airspace must treat London’s major airports equitably when airspace is allocated. And C - the environmental impacts of aviation must be fully acknowledged and the aviation industry should fully meet its external and environmental costs particularly in respect of noise, air quality and climate change ...
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Judge rejects 3 legal challenges against proposed new 2nd runway at Dublin Airport
The High Court in Ireland has thrown out three challenges against plans for a 3,100 metre 2nd runway at Dublin airport. Mr Justice Max Barrett dismissed actions that arose over the runway plans, which Dublin Airport (DAA) wants so it can become an international hub, rivalling Heathrow. The judge dismissed an action by Friends of the Irish Environment, which claimed that the decision to grant planning permission was not in compliance with EU directives or the 2000 Planning and Development Act. The group also argued that the proposed runway would result in additional greenhouse gas emissions, which will increase the pace of climate change. He also dismissed another claim on certain pre-construction works. The judge's ruling said “laws matter, rules matter but mistakes happen” and in this case he was not exercising the court’s discretion to find in favour of the residents. The judge also dismissed an action brought by 22 residents, who said local Fingal council failed to consider or address their concerns about the 2nd runway's effect on their homes and land - though he said he respected the fighting spirit of the residents and “sympathised” with them in the predicament they found themselves in. The cases have been adjourned for a week to allow the various parties to consider the rulings, or if any will appeal.
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Blog by Canadian IRPP political studies academic: Rising air travel emissions “the policy options are limited”
"Unlike the shift towards electrification of automobiles and the growth of renewables, there are no good policy options on the table for adequately reducing emissions from aviation. Sadly, the only genuine way to reduce our collective carbon footprint from long-distance transport – given available technologies – is to significantly cut down on passenger and cargo flights. ... Cut out air travel or continue contributing to the ongoing climate emergency faced by our home planet — this is the inconvenient juncture at which we have arrived. ... The number of air travellers globally has more than doubled in the last two decades, and forecasts expect demand for air travel to double again in the next two decades. The same story is true of world air cargo ... Not only are global regulatory “solutions” like CORSIA a non-starter, but new technologies are also impractical or unlikely to work at the level of the jumbo plane. ...In the end, the only practical way to reduce our society’s emissions from long-distance air transport (while admittedly giving rise to social costs elsewhere) is to restrict the growth in demand for air transport. ... It’s going to take some political guts" [with any effective measure - like higher tax or capping growth in flight numbers- unpopular] so politicians are unlikely to try. But "Relying on technological innovation, other market forces, and a global system of carbon offsets will not solve the serious problem of growing GHG emissions from aviation"
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Obscure aviation climate deal – ICAO’s CORSIA – could undermine the Paris Agreement
A new Columbia Law School report reveals major shortcomings in how the UN aviation agency (ICAO) interprets transparency and public participation requirements. The 36 member countries of ICAO met for closed talks in Montreal to discuss rules on its carbon offsetting scheme - known as CORSIA. Established in October 2016, the new carbon market is intended to compensate for the industry’s emissions growth above 2020 levels. But in addition tot he Columbia Law School report, new Carbon Market Watch analysis warns that a careful design of the rules is necessary to avoid undermining the goals of the Paris Agreement. The ICAO process needs to allow proper public scrutiny, to avoid being of low quality and trying to use illegitimate offsets. So far a lack of public scrutiny has allowed ICAO to develop climate policy in isolation, and this has serious and direct implications for the Paris Agreement. Unless there are clear rules for how CO2 reductions purchased by airline operators are accounted for, it is likely that there will be double counting of these cuts - risking the Paris goals. So far ICAO has kept the outcome of political meetings and important documents relating to the development of the CORSIA locked away from the public domain. By contrast, the IMP and UNFCCC generally provide engagement opportunities to the public