General News
Below are links to stories of general interest in relation to aviation and airports.
HS2 rail line could be re-routed to Heathrow if Davies Commission goes for Heathrow expansion
The Telegraph reports that Patrick McLoughlin has signalled he could reroute the new high-speed train line towards Heathrow if the Davies Commission recommends - in 2015 - developing Heathrow. This would be welcomed by campaigners trying to protect the Chilterns. Despite strong opposition, the government continues its support for HS2. Mr McLouglin has now said that HS2 may have to be “adapted” depending on what Sir Howard Davies concludes, and said: “I hope if anything needs to be adapted we will have time to do it.” Tricky with the decision being in 2015. Aides acting for the Transport Secretary made clear that HS2’s route could be redirected towards Heathrow if necessary. If the HS2 line is rerouted towards Heathrow, it will probably go to the west of the Chilterns. The blight along the proposed route means estate agents say many properties along the line are not selling at any price even though work on the London to Birmingham stretch is not set to begin until 2018.
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Draft Aviation Policy Framework consultation. Ended 31st October 2012
What is the Aviation Policy Framework (APF)? What are the key points? Why is the APF important? Why was it important to respond to it? How various AirportWatch member organisations have responded on specific questions See responses to the APF from a range of organisations, AirportWatch members and others . . Draft Aviation Policy Framework […]
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Global airline profit forecast raised by IATA
IATA predicts world aviation industry will make a profit of $4.1 in 2012 compared to the $8.4 billion it made in 2011, and the $7.5 bn it expects to make in 2013. They have increased the size of the profit that the $630 billion global airline industry will make this year from its earlier estimate of $3 billion, up to $4.1 billion. The increase is due to expected efficiencies and consolidation. They are expecting the price of jet fuel to be lower next year - it has beem rising steadily for the past 4 months. IATA expects an increase in global air passengers of 4.5% in 2013 and an increase in ar cargo of 2.4% above the 2012 level, on 2.5% world economic growth. IATA say the global aviation industry makes a very tiny profit margin, of only about 0.6% for all of 2012, but rising to 1.1% profit margin in 2013. European airlines, hit particularly hard by the continuing debt crisis, were in line to make a loss of $1.2bn this year, compared to profits by North American and Asia Pacific airlines.
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Scottish pressure to get more Heathrow slots for Scotland
The director of the Highlands and Islands Transport Partnership (HITRANS) - Dave Duthie - argues that in order for there to be more flights from Heathrow to Scottish airports, market intervention to protect Scottish and regional links is necessary unless the government commits to expanding Heathrow. BA plans to retain just 2 of the 6 daily Heathrow flights operated by BMI from each of the Scottish cities in its upcoming winter schedule. Tje CAA have ring-fenced 7 of the 14 Heathrow remedy slots being sold by IAG for Edinburgh and Aberdeen, but beyond that, there is no long-term guarantee of Scotland's connectivity. The problem is that Scottish links are not as valuable to airlines as international, long haul routes, and while Heathrow slots are very expensive ($15 million and more for one pair) airlines will not choose Scottish destinations. Duthie therefore argues that slots are expensive because there is a constrained supply of them, so their high price makes Scottish routes uneconomic. (This argument seems much more simply sorted out, by allocating some slots for domestic routes, than demanding a new runway).
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2M group of London local authorities say “Heathrow won’t stop at third runway”
The 2M Group of local authorities (that now represents some 5 million people in London) has warned that allowing Heathrow to build a 3rd runway would inevitably lead to demands for a 4th. The 2M Group is an all-party campaign alliance, which includes more than 20 councils, including Wandsworth, Richmond, Hounslow and Hammersmith & Fulham. They understand that the 'hub' airport model needs high volumes of short-haul 'feeder flights' to attract enough passengers to fill its long haul services. And that means that if Heathrow added more long haul routes, it would want even more feeder flights to fill the extra seats. That would lead to high peaks of demand throughout the day. leading to the airport then wanting yet further runway and terminal space. 2M warns that these pressures give hub airports an insatiable appetite for expansion. That kind of growth blights the lives of too many people.
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George Monbiot says the case for expanding UK airports is based on fallacy
"The two most common justifications for expanding airport capacity are that it makes this country more "business friendly" and that it enables a higher proportion of poorer people to fly. Both justifications turn out to be false". Monbiot picks apart the fallacy that more airport capacity and more flying are changes that our future economy depends on. Those advocating airport expansion presume that it will generate more business flights, which will benefit the economy. Actually, the number of business flights has fallen, with a 25% decline since 2000. Business travel is a mere 12% or so of UK flights, compared to some 60% on leisure trips, and some 20% visiting friends and family. For many businesses, cutting the number of flights their staff take saves money, saves time and improves performance. In 2010 some 77% of flights were taken by people in socio-economic classes A, B and C1 and that proportion has barely changed since 1999. More airport capacity will largely have the effect of enabling the richer half of society to take more leisure journeys, to spend their money abroad.
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“We don’t need another runway, we need to change our flying behaviour”
Andrew Corner, an expert on psychology and communicating climate change matters, comments that the airport capacity debate has been about where – rather than whether – UK airport capacity should be increased. Discussion of the link between a new runway or new airport and the impact of aviation on climate change has been notable by its absence. Flying has for a long time existed in its own bubble in terms of behaviour change. It is simply not reasonable, argue policy makers, to expect people to fly less. There are various findings from the recent British Social Attitudes survey - including that respondents who said they were very concerned about climate change reported flying more in the past year than those who said they were not at all concerned. The link is affluence. Even in the UK, it is the wealthy who fly the most. Many of us have already become accustomed to a lifestyle that requires regular flying, and don't seem to be in a hurry to change. We should be asking how we can reduce the need for more airport capacity, not just where to put it.
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Lyria TGV – Franco-Swiss trains declare war on air travel
The Lyria TGV line, which runs between Paris and the Swiss cities of Zurich, Geneva, Berne, Lausanne, Basel and Neuchâtel, is competing strongly with air travel for the same journeys. The time between Paris-Basel takes 3 hours 3 minutes; Paris-Geneva 3 hours 5 minutes. and according to the CEO of Lyria "... three hours is the psychological threshold to transfer to air from rail," With the convenience of no long check in times, no long waits for luggage, and no journey from the airport to the city centre, the rail journey is very attractive. The article implies the train will compete directly with flights from Paris to Basel and Paris to Geneva. Lyria is trying to attract first class passengers by offering a meal ticket, free newspapers and recruiting staff speaking French, German and English.
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Lib Dems resolute on no 3rd Heathrow runway and no Gatwick or Stansted runways
At the Liberal Democrats' autumn conference in Brighton, they have voted against new runways at Heathrow, Gatwick or Stansted. They also voted against a Thames estuary airport. Dr Julian Huppert told members it was time for the party to set out an aviation policy which "balances the need for growth with the clear environmental threat that we face". He said we simply must not build airport capacity which would force us to miss carbon reduction targets, and that there is space at existing airports with existing infrastructure for growth in passenger numbers. Many have spare capacity, including Gatwick, Stansted, Manchester and Birmingham. We need to use existing capacity better. The would like a new hub airport however, but only if other runways are closed to make up for it, so there's no net increase in runways or total capacity. However, Nick Clegg has said he will wait to see the outcome of the Davies commission.
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Cameron likely to lose seats in constituencies affected by airport expansion
A Bloomberg article says voters affected by noise from Heathrow flights paths are likely to vote against the Conservatives at the next election, if they do not oppose expansion at Heathrow. Zac Goldsmith only won the Richmond Park district 2 years ago by 4,091 votes out of 59,268 from the Liberal Democrats. Cameron can’t afford to lose seats if he wants to retain power after the next election, scheduled for 2015. Conservative Brentford & Isleworth MP, Mary McLeod - with a majority of 2.000 - , says she was elected on the basis of no Heathrow expansion. Data from the EC and Britain’s CAA show that 725,000 people are affected by aircraft noise around Heathrow. Justine Greening's Putney constituency was held by Labour before 2005. Districts to the SE of London in Dartford, Chatham and Gillingham, all of which the Tories won from Labour in 2010, might be vulnerable if an estuary airport went ahead.