General News
Below are links to stories of general interest in relation to aviation and airports.
Estimates of some of the Covid job losses in the aerospace and airline sector
Some numbers of the job losses by airports, airlines and plane manufacturers, caused by the Covid pandemic. These numbers are often estimates and will need to be updated, depending on how long Covid travel restrictions continue, and how much financial help the sector gets from government, or what loans it can obtain.
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PwC report says airlines need to shrink their fleets and restructure their businesses, post-Covid
PWC report says drastic cuts are needed to airline fleets, and also business restructuring. PWC's 2021 Aviation Industry Outlook says the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic has permanently realigned the finances of airlines and many will go under. It also says investors are ready to pick up bargains in distressed aviation deals. “In order to survive and thrive in the post-Covid world, airlines will have to fundamentally re-think their fleets, their business models and their finances. For most, a return to business as usual is not going to be a viable option.” Airlines will not just be able to pick up where they left off last March, as many markets may have become uneconomic to serve. There are too many aircraft for the likely demand, which will not return for ages to the 2019 level of around 4.5 billion passenger trips. About 30% of the global passenger airliner fleet – over 8,500 aircraft – are inactive. The massive debt of airlines will need "root and branch restructuring" in order to return to profitability. IATA predicts the global airline industry will lose €98bn in 2020 and a further €32bn in 2021. Airlines have had at least €149bn to date in government support.
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Eastleigh Council may make decision on Southampton runway extension in March
A final decision by Eastleigh Council, on plans to lengthen the runway by 164 metres (538ft) at Southampton Airport, could be made by March. The aim is to be able to accommodate larger planes, such as A320s and Boeing 737s for yet more holiday flights, to yet more destinations. The airport said it expects "to submit additional information regarding its runway extension application to Eastleigh Borough Council later this month. A new public consultation will then follow." A council decision, after the consultation, could be by mid-March. Opponents are very aware that the extension will negatively impact the area due to increased noise, and there will be increased carbon emissions. At the start of December 2020 Southampton City Council objected to the proposals on the grounds of noise and climate change. The airport had around 1.78 million passengers in 2019 (barely higher than in 2009, though the peak was around 2 million in 2017. It hopes to get 3 million annual passengers by 2033.
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Airlines and others depend on the “giant loophole” of future (unproven) carbon removal technologies
Governments and businesses worldwide are hoping they will be able to avoid making drastic carbon cuts, and instead somehow remove carbon from the air - avoiding climate breakdown. The UK's Committee on Climate Change has advised the UK government that carbon dioxide removal (CDR) at scale, will be needed. All climate goals for "net-zero" depend to some extent on this rather dubious future "get out of jail free" technology. Now a paper by Greenpeace shows the extent to which these aspirations to remove CO2 from the atmosphere have become (as was predicted) a huge loophole. Aviation is one of the sectors that most needs to depend on carbon removal, as its plans for continuing growth mean more fuel burned - and more carbon. The IPCC reports that the maximum sustainable CO2 removal in 2050 by new forests is between 500 - 3,600 Mt per year. The maximum for BECCS is 500 - 5,000 MtCO2. Greenpeace says IAG alone anticipates using forests to offset 30 MtCO2/ year by 2050: thus exhausting up to 6% of the available total (if that was 500Mt). For American Airlines, CDR will be used to offset emissions equivalent to about 50% of the present total; for IAG it is over 95%.
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Norwegian is ending its low-cost long-haul flights, to focus on European routes only
Norwegian Air says it is ending its long-haul operation, and end its plans for low-cost long distance flying. It had to ground most of its fleet throughout 2020 – its long-haul Boeing 787 Dreamliner jets have not been used since March. Even before Covid, it long-haul flights (to the US, Argentina and Brazil) at stupidly low prices were not making money, and Norwegian had financial troubles. In 2013, after 20 years as a standard short-haul carrier, it had its first budget transatlantic flights – firstly from Oslo, and in 2014 from Gatwick. One-way economy fares between the UK and US cost from just £125. For that price there was no free check-in baggage, or food or drink. The first flight between Gatwick and Seattle cost £150. Gatwick was its long-haul base in the UK. In 2019, it flew more passengers between the US and UK than any other airline, to 12 US destinations. Margins were very tight, and the airline had rising debt in 2019. By April 2020, 80% of its staff were on furlough. So there will be no long-haul flights by Norwegian at Gatwick, but their flights to European destinations will continue.
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Heathrow passengers down 72.7% in 2020 (cf. 2019). ATMs down 57.8%. Cargo down 28.2%
Heathrow has published its figures for 2020, which was a year made completely abnormal, by the Covid pandemic. Heathrow's number of passengers was 72.7% lower than in 2019, with 22.1 million passengers, compared to 80.9 million in 2019 (ie. 58.8 million fewer). As planes were less full than usual, with lower load factor, the number of flights (ATMs) was down by 57.8% for the year, compared to 2019 .The amount of cargo carried was down by 28.2%, which Heathrow blames partly on the limited number of passenger planes, the holds of which normally contain cargo. The largest reduction in air passengers was to North America (79.5% down). Until Covid, the number of Heathrow passengers rose relentlessly, even though the airport claims it is "full" (it always had extra terminal capacity). In 2009 it had 65.9 million passengers; in 2016 it had 75.7 million; in 2017 it had 78.0 million; in 2018 it had 80.0 million; and in 2019 it had 80.9 million. The number of flights (ATMs) in 2020 was 200,905; in 2018 was 480,339 and the number in 2019 was 479,811 (the figure is capped at 480,000 per year).
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Most Europeans may curb flying, eat less meat for climate, EIB EU poll says
The poll in October of more than 30,000 people published by the European Investment Bank shows 72% of Europeans and Americans and 84% of Chinese people think their own behaviour can make a difference in tackling climate change, up by between 7-12% since last year. They think almost a third of the global population would be willing to fly less, due to climate fears. People now think giving up flying would be one of the easiest things they could do to cut their carbon footprint and respondents were far more reluctant to stop driving a car, video streaming, buying new clothes or eating meat. When Covid-19-related restrictions are lifted, 43% of Europeans, 40% of Americans and 65% of Chinese people said they will try to avoid air travel, according to the survey. Many of those cited climate change as the main reason. The EIB Vice-President Ambroise Fayolle said: “The post-Covid-19 period will provide an opportunity to take a quantum leap in the transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy." People age d 15-30 were more likely to believe their behaviour can make a difference, than those older. On just CO2 emissions (ignoring the impact of non-CO2) aviation is around 2.5- 3% globally, and road transport 15%.
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Stansted Airport Public Inquiry into expansion plans – started 12th January
After over 3 years of fierce resistance by the local community, the proposed expansion of Stansted Airport will be decided by a Public Inquiry which opens on Tuesday 12th January. The outcome will determine whether Uttlesford, East Herts, and other surrounding districts will continue to consist of largely rural communities or will, in time, become further blighted and urbanised in the same way as large areas around Gatwick and Heathrow airports. Stop Stansted Expansion (SSE) considers it entirely irrational, and potentially dangerous, for the Government’s Planning Inspectorate to insist that the Public Inquiry must start at the height of the Covid pandemic. Stansted already has permission for 35 million passengers and its passenger throughput peaked at 28 million in 2018, with passenger numbers in decline since mid-2019, long before the pandemic. In 2020, Stansted handled just 7 million passengers and has forecast that it will take years to return to pre-pandemic levels. Plainly, there is no urgency to increase the current planning cap.
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Bristol Airport expansion: comments can be submitted on the appeal – 11th Jan to 22nd Feb
Members of the public are being urged to submit their views on the expansion of Bristol airport, to the Planning Inspectorate, ahead of public inquiry this summer. The consultation started on 11th January, and end on 22nd February. The airport appealed against a decision by North Somerset Council to reject its expansion plans which would see passenger numbers grow from 10 million to 12 million per year. The public inquiry heard by an independent planning inspector, would probably last 3-4 weeks, and is likely to start in July. Local campaigners are now getting ready to fight the appeal. They say any expansion of the airport would lead to congested roads, increased noise, loss of green belt, negative impact on the local environment from the proposed growth in flights - as well as the impact on climate change. Campaign group Bristol Airport Action Network (BAAN) is angry that the airport’s management has been instructed by wealthy owners, the Ontario Teacher’s Pension Plan, to appeal the original decision made in March 2020. Bristol City Council also opposed the expansion with North Somerset Council saying it will ‘robustly defend’ the appeal.
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Letting Gatwick convert its emergency runway for full use would require capacity restrictions at other airports
Plans to bring Gatwick's emergency runway into regular use would only be possible with a government intervention to prevent other airport expansions. This is what the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) advice indicates. The deputy director of the Aviation Environment Federation, Cait Hewitt, said: “Allowing Gatwick's emergency runway to be used routinely as a second runway would only be possible if the government was to intervene to restrict capacity elsewhere in the UK, presumably by removing existing planning permissions - not an easy step to take” - and that the CCC advice makes it clear that “aviation can no longer be let off the hook when it comes to UK climate policy ... The CCC's advice should represent a line in the sand when it comes to airport expansion. ... Airport expansion runs directly counter to the net zero agenda. It has to stop.” The Gatwick plans mean the emergency runway could be operating short-haul flights, by the end of the decade. The CCC's advice to government on the Sixth Carbon Budget, published on 9th December 2020, advises the government that any increase in UK airport capacity would need to be matched by restrictions at other airports to ensure no ‘net increase’.