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Latest news stories:
Warren Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway sells all its shares in the 4 largest US airlines
Billionaire investor Warren Buffett has said his company, Berkshire Hathaway, has sold all its stakes in the 4 largest US airlines, because of the coronavirus crisis. According to the company's financial records, it had an 11% stake in Delta Air Lines, 10% of American Airlines Co, 10% of Southwest Airlines Co and 9% of United Airlines at the end of 2019. Speaking at the company's (virtual) AGM, the business tycoon said "the world has changed" for the aviation industry due to Covid. He said he had made the wrong decision in investing billions of dollars in the aviation industry, since 2016. He thinks it is unclear if as many people will fly in the coming years as in 2019. He said if airline demand comes back 70-80%, that means airlines will have too many planes. The company was one of the largest individual holders in the four airlines. Berkshire Hathaway has lost money on airlines, and is worth less today because of the decision to invest in airlines. Elsewhere, there is speculation that the aviation sector will have to invest more in environmental initiatives, and there will be a decline in investment in the construction of new airport terminals, new airports and new aircraft orders.
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Campaign groups write to Sec of State for Transport, asking for a far-reaching review of the aviation industry – with any bail-out funding conditional on proper review
In the current, unprecedented situation for aviation, created by the Covid-19 pandemic, the sector is lobbying hard to be given government bail-out money. Now campaign groups have written to Grant Shapps, asking that a far-reaching review of the aviation industry and the regulatory mechanisms through which it is overseen should be carried out urgently. This is necessary in the light of the series of failures, which have had very significant environmental, health and financial costs. The aviation industry is routinely excused from taking adequate responsibility for its adverse impacts on society and environment, while it enjoys immense legal, fiscal, public funding and other privileges. But its core low-margin high-volume business model - for which it now demands subsidies and bailouts - is unsustainable and no longer credible. The relationship between government and the industry has become too cosy, with policy-makers and officials appearing to believe and act as though their main role is to advance the industry’s interests rather than to regulate it effectively. The letter says systemic failure of the aviation industry, and its regulators is over-due. The intention to carry out such a review should be a condition of, and announced in parallel with, any “bail-out” of UK aviation businesses.
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Some possible changes to flying, when and if people want to start flying again
There is much speculation about what the aviation sector will be like in the later part of this year, and in the next few years, due to the Covid pandemic. It is very uncertain, not only whether - or how much - governments will bail out airlines, but also whether air travel demand will stay low, for years. It is likely unprofitable airlines will go out of business, and others will become smaller. They will probably abandon unprofitable routes and reduce capacity - which will mean air travel will be come more expensive. People are rightly very nervous about subjecting themselves to crowds of people at airports, and in planes - even if there is some measure of social distancing, and if wearing masks is compulsory. Enhanced cleaning regimens and modified boarding practices will raise operational costs. Will people over 50 or 60 be discouraged, for their health risk, from flying abroad? Will travel insurance become prohibitively expensive? Will some countries not want incomers, potentially bringing infection? Will the concept of a "bucket list" of travel destinations now be binned? Will travel again become something special, with a "holiday of a lifetime" becoming just that? Fewer short trips, with longer and more meaningful trips instead?
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Mixed mode at Heathrow should be opposed; it means expansion through the back door, with more noise hell for thousands
Since 6th April, Heathrow has been operating using only one runway, in mixed mode, as a result of significantly reduced flight numbers during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mixed mode means landings and take-offs can take place on the same runway. At the moment this will be alternated each week, starting on a Monday. It is looking increasingly unlikely Heathrow will get a 3rd runway, due to the judgement of the Appeal Court, and now Covid. But if it does not get its 3rd runway, it is likely they will be looking to be allowed some form of expansion in its “two-runway strategy” that it is expected to launch in due course. This could take the form of increasing the annual cap on flight numbers from its current threshold of 480,000, to a new figure, over 550,000. That is 70,000 more flights per year, or about 190 more per day, using mixed mode. That means a lot more noise nuisance for thousands.The change would need a public inquiry, and would be politically toxic in areas affected negatively by Heathrow. It could bring misery to the 725,000 people already blighted by aircraft noise. Mixed mode means Heathrow expansion through the back door and it should be opposed.
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Ryanair getting rid of 3,000 staff, imposing 20% pay cuts – knows air traffic recovery will be slow
Ryanair, which is Europe’s biggest budget airline, has said that it will not be running more than a skeleton service until July – and even then, only around half the expected passengers will travel till September. It will cut up to 3,000 jobs, mainly pilots and cabin crew, in response to the coronavirus pandemic. It will also impose unpaid leave and pay cuts of up to 20%, and close some bases, “until traffic recovers”. The airline is currently flying around 1,700 passengers a day on a much-reduced network of Irish Sea and Continental services. It knows it will take time for passenger volumes to return. It is irritated that Air France and Lufthansa have been given state aid, and also EasyJet. And it has not. Air fares will initially be very low, to try to attract passengers back. Mr O’Leary dismissed the notion of social distancing on board aircraft. “Taking out the middle seat in an aircraft achieves no social distancing. There’s less than two feet between the aisle and the window seats." (And between rows). He misguidedly hopes temperature checks will do the trick. He knows traffic will not return to pre-coronavirus levels for at least 2 years.
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BA to cut Gatwick operation and lay off 1,130 pilots – and might not return to Gatwick post-pandemic
British Airways plans, due to Covid, to lose more than 1,100 pilots and make heavy cuts to its Gatwick airport operation as part of 12,000 redundancies - which is up to 30% of its workforce. Letters sent to union representatives for all sections of the airline set out the deep cuts, as well as drastic changes to terms and conditions across the company. BA plans to lay off almost 80% of crew managers at Gatwick and 60% of other cabin crew, more than 1,100 of almost 1,900 staff. The jobs of just over 400 ground staff will be outsourced to the airport and its contractors. The airline knows “there is no certainty as to when services can return” to London City or Gatwick airports. So BA may not continue at Gatwick. And they had “not ruled out suspending the remainder of our Heathrow operation”. Ground staff at Heathrow are also likely to be forced to accept new contracts with significantly lower pay. All 4,346 BA pilots will be asked to sign new contracts changing their terms and conditions, and accept new rostering arrangements. BA will be seeking to lay off 1,130 pilots. Around 22,000 BA employees were furloughed in April and May.
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Grant Shapps told EasyJet it would not face environmental levy in a private meeting last year – now gives it a £600 million loan
The UK’s Transport Secretary, Grant Shapps, during a meeting in September 2019, assured easyJet that an environmental tax on flights is “not the way forward.” This has come to light in documents obtained by Greenpeace's Unearthed. Shapps had agreed with easyJet that they did not want taxes aimed at reducing the aviation sector’s CO2 emissions. But now the UK government has given easyJet a £600 million loan, with no climate conditions attached, to help them during the Covid crisis. Meanwhile the EU is reportedly looking to make compliance with the Paris Agreement, and lower carbon emissions, a requirement for cash help. The French government has announced the terms of the €8 billion bailout for Air France, that will include deep (albeit non-binding) decarbonisation targets. Across the world, the aviation sector is lobbying aggressively to get government funding, as demand for air travel has been drastically reduced. It is deeply questionable whether scarce government funds should be spent on such an environmentally damaging sector, taking no account of its impact on climate breakdown.
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Coronavirus: Boeing to cut 15,000 jobs – 10% of its workforce as air travel demand collapses
Boeing plans to cut about 10% of its jobs as it continues to reel from the Coronavirus crisis and the fallout from its 737 Max safety crisis. It will lost about 15,000 staff out of a global total of around 150,000, through a combination of buyouts, layoffs and the elimination of unfilled roles. At the end of 2019, the company had about 161,000 staff. The company recorded a loss of $641 million in the first quarter, compared with a profit of $2.15 billion in the same period in 2019. The company's airline customers, which purchase Boeing planes to upgrade their fleets, have put purchases and maintenance on hold as they suffer from a global slowdown in travel. And Boeing continues to face losses due to the grounding of its 737 Max planes, which were blamed for two deadly crashes, in October 2018 and March 2019. Boeing's chief executive Dave Calhoun said "The aviation industry will take years to return to the levels of traffic we saw just a few months ago." Even that may be optimistic.
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Airbus and Rolls-Royce have ended a joint venture to produce a hybrid-electric airliner test model
It seems the plans for a (pie-in-the-sky) electric plane before too long are even more remote than they were before ... Airbus and Rolls-Royce have ended a joint venture to produce a hybrid-electric airliner testbed that could have paved the way for electric aircraft of the future. [A testbed aircraft is an aeroplane, helicopter or other kind of aircraft intended for flight research or testing the aircraft concepts or on-board equipment. These could be specially designed or modified from serial production aircraft.] The aim was to replace or or two of four jet engines with an electric engine. There is an unrealistic hope in the industry, and by some politicians, that aircraft carrying hundreds of passengers on their holiday etc trips will, in the not too distant future, be able to fly just on electricity. The reality is that, at best, there might be planes that can carry rather few passengers for rather short distances. Electric planes will NOT be able to substitute for planes like A320s now, travelling over 1,000 miles. The joint venture presumably was not sufficiently successful that the companies felt the need to continue with it. They did manage to produce a keg-sized 2.5MW generator, smaller than produced before.
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British Airways lays off up to 12,000 staff, due to likely air travel decline for years
Madrid-based IAG, the owner of British Airways, says 12,000 of BA's total staff of 45,000, now face redundancy. The airline is trying to conserve cash to keep going. Passenger numbers are expected to halve compared to 2019. BA had already furloughed more than half (22,626) of its 45,000 workers. In a statement after the close of the Stock Exchange, IAG said: 'In light of the impact of Covid-19 on current operations and the expectation that the recovery of passenger demand to 2019 levels will take several years, British Airways is formally notifying its trade unions about a proposed restructuring and redundancy programme. The proposals remain subject to consultation but it is likely that they will affect most of British Airways' employees and may result in the redundancy of up to 12,000 of them." ..."There is no Government bailout standing by for BA and we cannot expect the taxpayer to offset salaries indefinitely." News that thousands of people will lose their jobs comes weeks after the airline company's Spanish owners axed a controversial £300million payout to shareholders earlier this month.
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Airlines say Covid 2-week quarantine plan ‘will kill’ international travel – deterring travellers (though necessary in efforts to end the pandemic)
Trade body Airlines UK is saying "the airline industry and wider economy will suffer immeasurable damage" if ministers press ahead with plans to quarantine travellers for 14 days after they arrive at British airports. Currently people are arriving in the UK with no requirement, other than advice, to keep themselves in isolation for two weeks - in case they develop Coronavirus. So it is possible those arriving in the UK could be bringing in Covid with them, and setting up new infection spots. But the airlines say passengers having to remain at home, or in a hotel room, for 14 days would wreck international travel, further cut air travel demand, and damage their attempts to get flying profitably again (they do not appear bothered about the spread of Covid). Airlines are saying quarantine measures should be "co-ordinated" and the same between countries. They say, rightly, “Nobody is going to go on holiday if they’re not able to resume normal life for 14 days, and business travel would be severely restricted." They like to claim aviation is vital to the UK economy ... in reality most UK air travel is for leisure trips.
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US flight attendants warn: the airlines need to stop flying now
The airlines were a main contributor to the rapid spread of Covid-19 around the world. Rapid air travel is a major risk in the quick dissemination of any virus disease, enabling one to become a pandemic. But as well as moving the passengers around the globe, aiding the spread of infection, the airline staff are themselves at huge risk of catching the virus from the passengers they are transporting. American flight attendants are very concerned about their own health risks, as they are very exposed to potentially catching virus disease. They often have to travel to and from work on public transport; they have to pass through many parts of an airport, coming into contact with many people; they have to come into close contact with passengers during a flight, and they then risk infecting their families when they return home. Even quarantining passengers in their destination country will not reduce the risk to airline staff. If every airline passenger, and all airline staff, wear masks, the risk would be slightly reduced. However, the effectiveness of a mask, worn for many hours and becoming damp, is unknown.
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Norwegian Air says most of fleet will stay grounded until 2021, and shareholders will be seriously hit
Norwegian Air says virtually all of its fleet of aircraft will remain grounded until 2021 as it seeks to persuade shareholders (meeting on 4th May) to accept a government-backed rescue plan that will wipe out most of their investments. Bondholders, aircraft lessors and shareholders will have to take a huge cut in profits in order for the airline to get a 3bn kroner (£230m) state bailout. Even that may not be enough, it warned, in its “base scenario”, where operations only restart in earnest next summer. Currently just seven of a fleet of 147 planes are not grounded as they are being used for state-subsidised domestic flights in Norway, mainly for essential cargo. Its future plans may mean only keeping key profitable routes, ending long-haul routes to secondary airports, with a fleet up to 30% smaller than previously planned. Bondholders will later this week decide whether to accept the strategy and allow the debt to be converted into equity, a necessary move if Norwegian is to gain access to state funds. Norwegian’s aircraft lessors will also be asked to take equity in the company, rather than pursue debts. The airline is looking to reduce its obligations on leasing planes by £403m.
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Stop Stansted Expansion ask MAG not to challenge Uttlesford DC’s decision to oppose expansion, saving public money to help with Covid recovery
Uttlesford District Council (UDC) refused the Stansted Airport planning application on 24 January this year. But the airport’s owners, Manchester Airports Group (MAG), said an appeal was being considered. Legally, 6 months is allowed for a planning appeal and 3 months of that have now passed. An appeal would trigger a Public Inquiry which would mean that the final outcome might not be known for possibly another 18 months. Meanwhile UDC has felt it had to set aside £1.7 million to cover the potential costs of a Public Inquiry, and the risk of UDC being forced to pay MAG’s costs if MAG wins. Stop Stansted Expansion (SSE) has asked MAG to show magnanimity in the current circumstances of the Covid pandemic, by announcing that it will respect the decision made by UDC in January, and not appeal. SSE say "it’s time to end the uncertainty ... Now more than ever, MAG should respect the UDC decision.” SSE want the airport to withdraw its application for expansion to from 35mppa to 43 mppa. The £1.7million would be far better spent, by UDC, "to assist local businesses and local residents, including airport employees who have been laid off, during the virus crisis.”
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Coronavirus: Airlines lobby Sunak over prolonged ‘cash crisis’ wanting help well past June
Britain's airline industry is urging ministers to further extend government emergency wage subsidies beyond the end of June, warning that it will face a continuing "cash crisis" as demand for air travel takes months to recover from the COVID-19 crisis. Airlines UK has written to the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, to ask the Treasury to provide certainty for airlines about the ongoing operation of the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme. Airlines UK says if the scheme is "withdrawn prematurely, carriers experiencing only a tentative revenue recovery will face a renewed cash crisis". They also want a 'tapering' of the scheme or a review on a sectoral basis - to avoid aviation facing a cliff-edge post-June, whilst services start slowly being scaled up. Airlines have already had assistance with air traffic control charges for the lockdown period. Mr Sunak has said that the government will only consider bailing out individual carriers "as a last resort". Airlines want the furlough scheme to last as long as possible, as if there is a second wave of infection, it will delay the return of air travel demand.
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Lufthansa says it will be a smaller airline post-Covid with perhaps 10,000 fewer jobs
Lufthansa has said that it will be left with 10,000 excess staff, when the Covid crisis ends, as it may become a permanently smaller airline. It is unlikely to experience pre-crisis levels of demand until 2023. Demand may not recover unless and until there is a vaccine that is available worldwide. And it says it will have to spend more the €1bn a year to repay loans after the crisis. It can no longer borrow the money it needs commercially. Almost 90,000 of its 135,000 employees are furloughed, and many staff would be lost, though every effort will be made to preserve jobs. Also the load factor may be 10% lower in future. It may also get rid of about 100 planes, keeping larger models. The CEO, Carsten Spohr, said “We were the first industry to be affected by this global crisis and aviation will be one of the last to leave it.” [And they helped the rapid spread of the virus round the world]. IATA is predicting a 48% fall in air passengers in 2020, compared to 2019, taking global numbers back to those of around 2013. Lufthansa may axe Germanwings and shrink its Eurowings division.
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Air France must cut CO2 emissions, and domestic flights as condition of state aid: says France’s Finance Minister
France's Finance Minister, Bruno Le Maire, has told Air France that it will have to cut its carbon emissions and domestic flights, as conditions for government financial support. The French government has offered the airline a €7 billion package of state-guaranteed bank loans, and loans directly from the state. This is on condition that the airline map out a path to profitability and set the goal of "becoming the most environmentally friendly carrier in the world." [Whatever that means]. Air France will have to halve its CO2 emissions per passenger, and per kilometre - compared to their 2005 level - by 2030. The CO2 emissions from domestic flights in France will have to be halved, and that means cutting the numbers drastically. Another condition is that 2% of the fuel used by its planes would have to be derived from alternative, sustainable sources by 2025. [Problem is there are almost no properly environmentally "sustainable" fuels, and pushing for them is likely to increase deforestation and loss of land for food growing, and for wildlife]. Air France also have to buy new planes, with lower CO2 emissions, from Airbus.
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Heathrow’s Holland-Kaye wants internationally agreed infection screening measures at airports
Matt Hancock, wanting an internationally agreed standard of measures to check passengers for Covid infection. Holland-Kaye has asked Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, for mass screening at airports to combat Covid. He wants an internationally agreed standard of measures, including antibody tests and a requirement that all passengers carry health passports proving they are medically fit - so he can get the airport working and making money again soon. At present, about 10,000 people are arriving per day through Heathrow. Some are from countries with a lot of Covid and might be carrying the virus. The UK has a far more lax attitude to people arriving by air than many other countries. All there is for passengers arriving at UK airports is they are handed information leaflets and told to self-isolate for 14 days after landing – although officials admit they have no way of enforcing this. Passengers may leave the airport on public transport. The failure to insist on proper quarantine threatens the health of the nation and makes a mockery of the lockdown conditions imposed on the rest of Britain. The UK is an outlier in its open borders, no quarantine policy.
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Gatwick: Likely to take 4 years for passenger levels to recover to 2019 levels (if ever …)
Gatwick has said it will not ask the Treasury for emergency loans despite fearing that passenger numbers will not return to pre-Covid levels for up to 4 years. Gatwick has already secured a £300m loan from existing banks. It has also cancelled dividends, cut a lot of costs and furloughed around 2,000 staff. Boss Stewart Wingate said: “We think it is probably going to take somewhere between 3 and 4 years to get back to the levels that we were at in 2019." Gatwick hopes it can ride out months of losses, but want to have flights re-starting by the end of May. Unlike rivals, Gatwick said "you should do absolutely everything you possibly can that is within your control to protect the business" before asking for state aid. Gatwick is open from 2-10pm each day, for a handful of flights. Unlike rival Heathrow, which gave out over £100 million in dividends to shareholders in February, Gatwick’s owners will not be taking a dividend despite the airport announcing an 8% rise in earnings of £432m in the 9 months to December 2019. There may not be dividends till 2022. It is possible that British Airways might leave Gatwick in due course.
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Physical distancing on planes will end era of cheap air travel, aviation industry’s IATA warns
Until there is minimal risk of transmission of Covid-19, and there is no longer a need for social distancing, airlines are not going to be able to continue to operate as they have in the past. Passengers will not be able to sit close together. If at least one seat in three has to be left empty (even that may not achieve a necessary 6ft distance) then the price of tickets will have to rise. Substantially. IATA says the days of cheap air travel will be over if airlines are forced, by governments, to introduce physical distancing measures on planes. IATA says if they cannot sell one third of their seats, then prices will have to rise by at least 50%. [What is the logic?] IATA said would particularly hit low cost airlines, and would mean the end of the days of cheap air travel. Recovery of air travel demand will be slow, not only due to infection fear but also economic recessions - many people will be poorer. Also, people have become more used to internet communication. Other changes that airlines are introducing are distancing at airports, and less hand luggage allowed in cabins. Also passengers given pre-packed food, or allowed to bring their own, and no inflight magazines etc. All cutting profits ...?
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TAN launches legal bid to stop UK government roads building plans – on climate grounds
The UK government’s £28.8 billion plan to expand Britain’s road network is set to be challenged in the courts. Lawyers Leigh Day, acting for Transport Action Network (TAN) have asked the DfT and Highways England to scrap their 5-year road building plan. The pre-action protocol letter was sent to the DfT on 9th April. This is partly on the grounds that it is not compatible with the UK's commitments under the Paris Agreement, and also breaches air quality legislation. TAN have retained the services of David Wolfe QC of Matrix chambers and Pete Lockley of 11 KBW, who won in the Heathrow case back in February, on the same climate grounds, of ignoring the Paris Agreement. The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, launched the Road Investment Strategy 2 (RIS2) in March, and it was described as England’s “largest ever” roads programme, and Tory manifesto pledge to spend on strategic roads. Spending money on more, bigger roads just acts to lock in future carbon emissions, by increasing road vehicle trips. TAN launched a £38,000 crowdfunder on April 21 to pay for the legal challenge.
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Smaller airports, whose finances were already dodgy before Covid-19, may not survive post-pandemic
Due to Covid-19, about 90% of flights have ceased. Some airports are "at risk" of closure because of the loss of business. Airports said cargo flights were running and shareholders were being supportive as they worked to cut costs. Flight tracking website Flightradar24 recorded just 711 departures from the UK's 10 biggest airports last week - compared to 7,865 in the week up to the UK's lockdown. Even before Covid, many regional airports were precarious, and that was made worse by the collapse of Flybe for domestic and short haul flights. They would normally make money from the Easter holidays and the summer. Even if there is a gradual lifting of lockdown, and more people start to fly, this is unlikely to create the usual summer rush. If the end of lockdown happens towards winter, that is a time of less air travel. Some grounded planes may never fly again. Fear of infection may never be forgotten. People's attitudes to travel may have been permanently altered. So some airports may to out of business. What would take over their land and buildings? Furloughed staff are being paid 80% of their wages by the government, but the sector wants more public money. Will it only be the larger airports that can survive longer-term?
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Austrian government would like any Austrian Airlines state bailout to be linked to climate targets and lower CO2 emissions in future
Austria's environment minister has said that Coronavirus state aid for Austrian Airlines should support efforts to cut aviation’s carbon footprint, as the government negotiates with the firm’s German parent company, Lufthansa. Any aid should be used to cut carbon emissions, as it is public money, and needs to be used wisely. Austrian Airlines has grounded all planes. “When it is about an industry that particularly needs to contribute to climate protection, then it makes a lot of sense to use this situation to support this transformation,” the minister said. Europe’s airlines are struggling to keep their heads above water, as virus lockdown measures slash demand for air travel. According to the IATA, latest estimates are that global losses for the airline sector this year will nearly reach €300 billion. Airlines are trying to get state aid, to bail them out, hoping they can get back to being profitable as soon as possible. It is unclear what specific climate conditions could be written into a bailout deal but options reportedly include a pledge to reduce short-haul flights, increased cooperation with rail companies, more low carbon fuels [if they exist] and bigger tax contributions.
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NATS eligible for funding of up to £92 million to maintain services
The DfT has announced that there is to be a £1.1 billion support package for air navigation service providers across Europe affected by COVID-19 events. This is because the pandemic has caused a massive fall in air traffic and hence in their incomes. It was announced earlier that airlines would be able to temporarily defer payments for route charges for February to May 2020, for up to 14 months, due to the virus. That would amount to £1.1 billion. The UK and other European states have supported the intergovernmental organisation, Eurocontrol, which manages charging for air navigation services across Europe, in securing the loan of £1.1 billion (where from?). The UK’s "en-route" air navigation service provider, NATS would be eligible to receive up to £92 million in support, enabling it to continue providing services. The only flights at present are for cargo and repatriation. The money is partly to ensure NATS and Eurocontrol can return to full operations at the appropriate time, "to help the recovery of the aviation sector." The UK government holds a 10% share in the vote for any such action passed by Eurocontrol, and voted in favour of pursuing the loan.
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EasyJet says it might leave the middle seat of 3 empty, to give the impression of correct “social distancing”
Airlines are keen to persuade the public that they can provide the recommended level of "social distancing" to avoid spread of Covid-19, while being stuck in a metal tube for several hours, with many other people. EasyJet has now said it plans to keep the middle seat, of sets of three seats, on its planes empty once the Covid-19 lockdown has been lifted. However, plane seats are about 17-18 inches wide. The distance between rows of seats on planes is about 31-33 inches, called the "seat pitch". Six feet is the distance recommended by governments for "social distancing". So just removing one seat leaves people closer than 6 feet apart, and also if there are people in the row infront or behind. Even removing one seat (inadequate for necessary distancing) would mean an increase in air fares, or less profit for EasyJet. And they say it would only be a temporary measure, while Covid lockdown is lifted. The airline wants people to think they are "taking this very seriously...." Not about profit or turnover at all then? As airlines were unwilling to refund passengers tickets, cancelled due to Covid, and instead gave them vouchers for future travel, they have a problem.
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Will demand for air travel, and our attitude to it, ever be the same post-pandemic?
Nobody knows what the future of the airline industry will look like, post-pandemic. Some of the factors are: will many airlines survive, even if given generous help from governments? how can future pandemics be prevented from being spread rapidly by air travel? how can airlines know if people are harbouring virus even if they do not show symptoms? can airlines operate if they have to maintain "social distancing" of 6ft between people at all times, without air fares having to rise hugely? how can they maintain social distancing at airports, and once passengers leave an airport? how much fear of contracting an illness will remain? will people ever fly again without a lingering nervousness about getting ill? if the price of air travel has to rise, will the poor be able to fly? will destinations want an influx of potentially infected people from other countries? if families can now keep in touch adequately by video conferencing like Zoom, will demand for family/ friends contact flights be cut? will business flights be cut by use of Zoom etc? as the business flights make the most money for airlines, how will that affect airlines' bottom lines? will our enthusiasm for globalisation wane? And many more issues ....
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Coronavirus: Areas reliant on aviation industry ‘to suffer worst’ – especially Crawley, too dependent on Gatwick
The Think Tank, the Centre of Cities, believes jobs in cities and towns which depend on the aviation industry will be most under threat by the coronavirus crisis. They estimate about 20% of jobs in these areas are vulnerable to the economic impacts of Covid-19. The economy of Crawley is likely to be hardest hit, as it is too dependent on Gatwick. More than 53,000 jobs are classed as vulnerable and very vulnerable in Crawley, of about 94,000 in the area. About 18% of jobs in Crawley are in aviation, compared with 1% on average across other big towns and cities. There are a lot of taxi drivers, whose work depends on the airport. People have warned for years about the dangers of areas "having all their eggs in one basket" on jobs, with too high a dependence on one industry. As much of the UK airline sector has almost closed down, with at least a 75% cut in flights at Heathrow, and over 90% cut at Gatwick, almost no flights using Luton, and so on. Luton is another town that is overly dependent on the airport, and now suffering. Also Derby and Aberdeen. The areas worse affected by job losses due to Covid-19 will be asking for government help, once the lockdowns are lifted.
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Coronavirus: plane-free skies spur research into non-CO2 warming impact of aviation eg. contrails
As the Covid-19 pandemic response decimates air traffic, it provides a unique opportunity for scientists to study how planes’ contrails trap heat in the atmosphere. It is the chance to study how much aviation increases global warming. The dramatic fall in air traffic is the largest since the 9/11 attacks in 2001. Scientists with Nasa and European research groups hope to use clear skies to narrow down massive uncertainties about the warming effect of condensation trails. The science of how much added warming is caused by the contrails (and other non-CO2 impacts of aviation) is complex and more research is needed. But it is likely that the overall impact of aviation on climate is about double that of the CO2 alone. It is perhaps 4-5% of the global total of human climate impact. Researchers will use satellites and measurements by planes to study how clouds form naturally when thousands of flights are grounded in the absence of aircraft. Would clouds have formed anyway, in the absence of planes? However, there are problems with Covid-19 social distancing, in assembling teams of technicians to install sensors on planes and find pilots to fly them.
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Covid-19: No more “normal” for aviation in future, after the world experiences the pandemic
The airlines have suffered, as have many other sectors of the economy, a dramatic decline due to Covid-19. They are hoping to be given generous loans and finance through governments, to help them deal with the crisis - though they are no more deserving than others. (It was the airlines that spread, inadvertently, the disease so fast, across the world). The airline sector used to be seen as special, glamorous and something praiseworthy. It seems that nowadays flying has become so commonplace, and such an unpleasant experience, that it no longer sits on that pedestal of public warmth and admiration. There is little public support for bailing out an industry that does not much environmental harm, especially when it has given large pay-outs to its financial backers over the years. The industry is facing a very uncertain future. The crisis is not just a temporary one, that might resolve in a few months. Covid-19 has seen an astounding rise in video-conferencing, (Zoom etc) that is likely to change for ever our perception of the need for air travel. And it may have caused long term anxieties about the global spread of disease. Many airlines are likely to collapse. Flying may look very different, and be more expensive, in a few years time.
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Haji-Ioannou says EasyJet £600m government loan is ‘biggest scandal in British corporate history’
EasyJet has secured a £600m loan from the Bank of England’s Covid Corporate Finance Facility, as the airline’s founder and biggest shareholder, Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou, claimed it would run out of cash by the year end regardless. The loan scheme allows UK businesses to apply for loans at pre-crisis commercial rates. EasyJet said it would also borrow another £407m from commercial creditors to ensure its liquidity. Its planes are now all grounded. Haji-Ioannou said even if the airline resumes flying fairly soon, hopes it would be solvent by August were probably “wildly optimistic” because it is wasting money on buying new planes. He said it is a scandal for EasyJet to be getting government funds, as if it cancelled the plane order, the loan would not be needed. The £600m will be to pay Airbus. He said when international travel eventually restarts, the airline would “feel more like a startup trying to find a few profitable routes for a few aircraft”. EasyJet is meant to be buying order for 107 planes from Airbus, costing some £4.5bn, which it now cannot afford. EasyJet has now reached agreements with unions to furlough about 4,000 UK-based pilots and crew during April and May, out of a total of about 9,000. Haji-Ioannou's family received a near £60m share of £171m paid in dividends last month.
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Covid-19: IATA emails reveal airline industry plan for tax breaks, subsidies & voucher refunds
Lobbyists around the world are coordinating a massive effort on behalf of airlines to push governments to remove environmental taxes and set up bailout funds - due to Covid-19. An email from IATA to its members shows how the airline industry is lobbying for public money to be poured into funds to restart or maintain air travel - and for any planned tax increases to be delayed for up to a year. The email describes “an aggressive global campaign” to ensure that airlines can offer passengers vouchers rather than cash refunds if flights are cancelled. This saves airlines money now, and also means CO2 emissions will increase as passengers re-book at a later date, instead of not travelling. Campaigners are concerned that the aid to airlines may last longer than the Covid crisis, even when things are back to (near) normal, and would allow the airline industry to receive public support without any undertakings to governments to reduce future carbon emissions. Governments can’t afford to be bailing out polluting sectors without strict green conditions. IATA also wants the baseline of carbon emissions for CORSIA to be based only on 2019 emissions, not 2019 and 2020 as intended, due to the pandemic this year.
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Natural England objects to proposed jet fuel from waste plant, backed by BA, Shell and Velocys
BA has been trying to get some jet fuel made from domestic waste that would otherwise go to landfill, so it can claim it is using "low carbon" fuels. There were plans for a plant in east London, by Solena, back in 2014 but that never got off the ground; Solena went bust in October 2015. Now BA and Shell and Velocys are hoping for a plant on an 80-acre site on Humberside, to convert waste that would go to landfill, into jet fuel. However, Natural England are worried it could harm local wildlife and have filed an objection. Velocys says the plant would turn household waste into 60 million litres of "low-carbon" jet fuel every year. The project is backed by £4.5m of investment from Shell and British Airways, alongside a £434,000 grant from the Department of Transport. In a letter dated 20 February 2020 Natural England said it objects to the development because trucks ferrying waste to the site could increase nitrogen oxide levels - which can cause serious health impacts for humans and wildlife. It is also concerned construction and waste from the site could disturb nearby habitats for rare birds. It is now for North East Lincolnshire Council to decide whether to approve the scheme.
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GMB call on Heathrow to reverse “kick in the teeth” reneging on paying London Living wage from April 2020
Historically the GMB union, which has the most members at Heathrow, have lobbied strongly all along the way for Heathrow expansion. They hope for more jobs. Even better paid ones. But Heathrow has often not done much to help its workers. With a struggle, in 2018, the GMB managed to get Heathrow to agree that contracted workers would be guaranteed London Living Wage of £10.55 per hour by April 2020. Now the GMB says workers are devastated to learn that "Heathrow Ltd have informed contract companies within its direct supply chain that is reneging on its agreement to fund implementation of the London Living Wage to its employees that was promised to workers from April 2020 onwards." GMB says this is unfair. Heathrow is currently only working (from 6th April) with one runway due to the dramatic decline in air travel due to Covid-19. The GMB says Heathrow much honour its agreement, to ensure workers (security, cleaning) etc still working at the airport - employed by outsourced contractors - get the Living Wage from April 2020. Workers were expecting this rise in their wage packets this April.
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Karl Turner asks: Where next for the UK’s airport policy?
On 27th February 2020 the Court of Appeal declared the Government’s Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS) to be illegal as the Government had not taken into consideration their commitments on climate under the Paris Agreement. So unless Heathrow succeeds in appealing to the Supreme Court, or Shapps amends the ANPS, Heathrow expansion is unlikely to happen. Expansion at Heathrow would have had a negative impact on the regions of the UK. The forthcoming Aviation White Paper [Aviation Strategy] provides the opportunity for Government to have a rethink about its entire aviation policy, particularly with regard to any future airport expansion. At the very most, UK aviation could expand by 25% on its 2018 level. But the current government projections are for 73% expansion by 2050, with various entirely speculative technologies that do not exist, or would be prohibitively expensive, removing the carbon. Alternative fuels are not going to happen on any scale. The government must avoid financial measures that boost aviation demand or support failing airline businesses, which cannot be justified in light of the climate crisis. .
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Big airline polluters likely to increase their CO2 emissions post-Covid, unless this is better regulated
The carbon emissions of EU airlines grew in 2019. There will be a steep fall in their emissions for an unknown amount of time, due to the Covid-19 pandemic. But air passenger numbers repeatedly broke records in the aftermath of global shocks such as the 2008 financial crisis, the September 11 attacks, the Gulf War […]
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What the Covid-19 pandemic can teach us about changes to life in future, and tackling climate change
There are lots of comments in the media about how society recovers from the Covid-19 pandemic, and the unique opportunity the crisis has provided for a re-think of many aspects of our economies. Governments and business etc will want to go for maximum economic growth, as soon as the crisis has been dealt with. The climate and ecological crises the earth faces will not have gone away, and will continue to worsen unless decisive and effective action is taken. Time may have been wasted on cutting carbon emissions, due to the virus crisis. There is a risk of environmental constraints being abandoned, in the rush for a return of economic growth. But there is also talk of the de-growth economy - slowing of growth in sectors that damage the environment, such as fossil fuel industries, and strengthening others, until the economy operates within Earth’s limits. Such a transformation would be profound, and so far no nation has shown the will to implement it. Coronavirus has caused unprecedented and rapid societal changes, and social constraints that would have been considered unimaginable just 2 months ago. There are practical lessons and opportunities we could take away from the coronavirus emergency as we seek to tackle climate change, though that is neither short-term, nor rapidly overcome.
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AEF asks: how should policymakers react to Covid-19 problems for aviation, and plan for the sector’s future?
The global changes to the aviation sector, caused by Covid-19, have been rapid and radical. It would have been impossible back in January to anticipate how many flights would be grounded, how air travel demand would sink, and how many airlines would be struggling to stay solvent. In a thoughtful piece by the AEF (Aviation Environment Federation), they consider how aviation policy needs to be re-thought, when the virus crisis is over. It is an opportunity to re-think society's relationship to air travel, in a world that has been woken up to the realities of a global pandemic, and its consequences. Even when the sector hopes, post-virus, to get back to "business as usual" flying, the long-term danger of climate breakdown remains - and the threat worsens. The AEF says it is time to cease aviation exceptionalism, and the special treatment is gets on environmental policies and regulations. This needs to change. And there should not be measures to cut aviation tax, as demanded by the industry, that increase air travel demand. That is not justifiable. Covid-19 has demonstrated the desire, by millions, to look after and care about the welfare of others. Perhaps this virus wake up call could bring the dawning of a more responsible age.
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DfT consultation on “Decarbonising Transport” – nothing of substance to cut aviation CO2
The DfT has quietly published (no press release or announcement - we are in the Covid-19 crisis) a consultation about Decarbonising Transport. The end date is around June, but not specified. Shapps says: "2020 will be the year we set out the policies and plans needed to tackle transport emissions. This document marks the start of this process. It gives a clear view of where we are today and the size of emissions reduction we need." And, less encouragingly: "We will lead the development of sustainable biofuels, hybrid and electric aircraft to lessen and remove the impact of aviation on the environment and by 2050..." (he actually believes electric planes will make much difference in a few decades??). It also says "Aviation, at present, is a relatively small contributor to domestic UK GHG emissions. Its proportional contribution is expected to increase significantly as other sectors decarbonise more quickly." And while saying we are working with ICAO on its CORSIA carbon scheme (unlikely to be effective) the document states: "...we would be minded to include international aviation and shipping emissions in our carbon budgets if there is insufficient progress at an international level." But overall the intention is to let demand for air travel continue to rise.
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Gatwick Airport will consolidate operations into the South Terminal from 1 April and limit runway opening hours
Gatwick will close its North Terminal and consolidate operations into the South Terminal from 1 April, for a month, due to the lack of demand for air travel because of COVID-19. The runway to be in use between 1400 and 2200 for scheduled flights, but will be available for emergency landings and diversions only, outside these hours. The situation will be reviewed after a month, by 1st May. A decision on reopening the North Terminal will be taken when airline traffic eventually increases and Government public health advice – including on social distancing – is relaxed. Gatwick is hoping to make out that it is being "responsible" in closing, to protect the health of its staff and passengers, while it has been quite happy to have as many flights as it can, to and from other countries suffering high levels of Covid-19 infection, up until now. It is only closing because of the economics, and to "protect its business." In addition London City Airport has announced that it was suspending all commercial and private flights until the end of April. It is also possible that Birmingham Airport could serve as a mortuary during the Coronavirus crisis.
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Fresh indication that the government is not intending to support Heathrow expansion
The No 3rd Runway Coalition believe the Government has given its clearest hint yet that it will not support Heathrow expansion. In reply to a question put by Slough MP Tan Dhesi, the aviation minister, Kelly Tolhurst said that “The Court of Appeal has ruled that the designation of the Airports National Policy Statement has no legal effect unless and until this Government carries out a review”. The fresh use of the word “unless” implies consideration has been given to drop the project altogether. The DfT also state that they are focussed on responding to Covid-19 at the moment, which presents further evidence that Heathrow expansion has slipped down the agenda. The Government also say that they “are carefully considering the Court of Appeal’s judgment and will set out our next steps in due course”. However, it is unclear how long is meant by “due course”. Heathrow is struggling, with few passengers, probably having to close one or more terminals, due to restrictions on air travel for an unknown period of time, due to Covid-19. A recent review of senior staff at Heathrow shows no longer a role for overseeing expansion. Heathrow now also appear not to be pushing for the "early release" of 25,000 extra flights, as this would depend on the NPS, which has now been deemed to be invalid, by the courts.
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Chancellor tells airlines that the government will not bail them out, due to Covid-19 crisis
Rishi Sunak, the chancellor, has written to the airlines and airports, warning that there would be no sector-wide rescue to prevent companies going out of business because of coronavirus. He insisted that further taxpayer support for the sector would only be possible once they had “exhausted other options” including raising money from shareholders, investors and banks. Companies have been told to access funding already announced last week, including monthly payments of up to £2,500 for every employee temporarily laid off because of the crisis. In his letter he said that airlines and airports could only seek “bespoke” support from the Treasury as a “last resort”, with no guarantee of further help. The comments follow criticism levelled at Easyjet after it paid shareholders £174 million in dividends last week, despite appealing for taxpayer support. Sir Richard Branson, has also been attacked after the airline told staff to take 8 weeks of unpaid leave. He has since promised to invest £215 million to support his Virgin Group business. Many airlines may go bankrupt due to the virus crisis. Some of the smaller airports may close, and larger airports partly close temporarily.
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Glut of jet fuel, as aviation demand is hugely reduced – land storage facilities nearly full – now storage in tankers at sea
The world is close to running out of space to store jet fuel that planes do not need, due to the collapse in air travel because of Covid-19 virus. Only about 20% of land-based storage for the product remains -- about 50 million barrels. There is now a shortage of places to keep unwanted jet fuel supplies. Unless oil refineries stop producing jet fuel, this will get worse. The aviation industry normally uses about 7 million barrels of jet fuel per day. Demand is down by about a third now, and could fall by 50% in the next few months. Airlines might be able to store fuel cheaply (perhaps $75 per tonne for two months) and save themselves money in future. It is unclear how much oil refineries have cut production. While land based sites may fill up, tanker ships can be chartered to store jet fuel at sea. However, there is a limit how long it can be stored, due to concerns about oxidation, stability and moisture content, and it degrades much faster than crude oil. Global oil consumption is being reduced by the coronavirus; as well as less air travel, many people are driving less. Refineries may switch to producing more diesel.
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UK government draws up plans to buy airline shares, that would eventually be sold back to private investors, to keep them afloat during Covid-19
The FT has reported that the UK government is preparing plans to buy equity stakes in airlines and other companies hardest hit by the coronavirus crisis, after being warned that the economic packages it has announced so far will not be enough to save them. This is still in discussion. The plans would see the UK taxpayer inject billions of pounds into companies including British Airways in exchange for shares that would eventually be sold back to private investors. The airlines, unlike companies selling essential items, currently have almost zero customers - taking holidays and leisure breaks is no longer desirable, or indeed, permitted. So the airlines and airport will have almost no income. The government plan for the airlines is "an infusion of capital in exchange for equity.” That is safer for the government than a loan, that may never be repaid, even when airlines get back to operating nearly normally. Many airlines already have huge debts. They cannot borrow more commercially. Some airlines wanted state loans and tax relief, but that might not be enough during a sustained shutdown in the global aviation industry. The US might also take equity stakes in their domestic airlines.
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Fatih Birol, of IEA, says due to Covid-19 Governments have ‘historic opportunity’ to accelerate clean energy transition
International Energy Agency (IEA) head Fatih Birol is calling on heads of state and international financial institutions to make Coronavirus recovery plans sustainable. He says political and financial leaders have “a historic opportunity” to usher in a new era for global climate action with economic stimulus packages. These stimulus packages are a critical opportunity for governments to “shape policies” in line with climate action. This is a great opportunity to focus, instead of on fossil fuels, on clean energy technologies and accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels. Currently huge sums are spent on keeping the price of fossil fuels low. Instead, now is a unique historic opportunity. This includes the aviation sector, which represents 1% of the global economy but 8% of global oil consumption. When plans to reinvigorate economies get going, they must address climate breakdown; including financial stimuli using low interest rates for low carbon electricity is key - and funding carbon capture and storage technologies. Governments need to increase the production of climate-proof jobs, avoiding jobs in "stranded asset" fossil fuel industries.
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Role of ICAO in not encouraging rapid decrease in international spread of Covid-19 by air travel
In the Covid-19 international virus crisis, the airline industry has been they key means by which the virus has spread rapidly, to almost every country. But the industry has been primarily concerned with its own economic interests. There is much more the aviation industry could have done, earlier on, to limit the spread of the disease. The Canadian news website, Ricochet, says only by the 9th March did ICAO's council finally adopted a declaration affirming “the urgent need to reduce the public health risk of the spread of COVID-19 by air transport,” but the damage was already done. Instead of limiting flights as much as possible from the start of the COVID-19 epidemic, ICAO lobbied to delay the adoption of health measures that could harm air traffic. They stressed the role of governments in directing the health checks etc on travellers, avoiding discouraging air travel by those who were likely to have been in contact with infected people. Doing that would have reduced passengers, and thus income and profits for the sector. On Feb 4th ICAO warned governments about imposing “additional health measures that may significantly impede international [air] traffic.” By then the first cases of infection had already been declared two to three weeks earlier in travellers who came from China, most of them by plane.
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Heathrow expansion frozen, with Coronavirus crisis adding further costs, uncertainties and delay
Heathrow contractors have been told to down tools, with work put 'on hold' until there is further clarity on any plan for a 3rd runway. It is unlikely to make any progress during the Covid-19 recession, when the number of people flying has been cut to just tiny numbers, and the situation likely to last for at least several months. This comes after the Court of Appeal ruling (27th February) that the Airports NPS is illegal; Heathrow is trying to appeal against this, to the Supreme Court, with a decision on whether to allow the appeal by mid April. Now the delays to the runway plans, if it ever happens, have increased by perhaps another year - due to the Coronavirus. The date when it might be ready has slipped from 2026, to 2029 (due to the CAA decision) to about 2030 (due to the Appeal Court) to about 2031 (due to Coronavirus).... so it is looking less and less likely. The airport will lose huge amounts of money, due to the virus, unless government bails it out - and that is widely NOT seen as a sensible use of government funds, when millions of people also need financial help, due to Covid-19.
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Airlines write to ask for government help as passengers no longer travel by air, due to Covid-19
As with so many other sectors and businesses in the UK and elsewhere, the Covid-19 pandemic is causing great difficulties to airports and airlines. Having speeded the spread of the disease round the world, airlines are now seeing a massive reduction in the numbers of people who want to fly. Governments are telling people not to travel. Planes are empty. Airports are empty. Many airlines do not have more than 2 or 3 months of reserves and are asking for government money to bail them out. Airports want help too, as do most other sectors. Whether giving money to airports (eg. Heathrow and Gatwick, owned by rich foreign companies) is a sensible use of scarce public funds, is another matter. Now Heathrow, Gatwick and Manchester airports have warned that they may have to close down operations unless there is government intervention to help them weather the virus crisis (that might last for many months more). The Airport Operators Association (AOA) said other airports are in the same position. IATA has said only about 30 of more than 700 airlines operating commercial flights around the world were likely to survive the next few months without help.
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EU to suspend rules on slot “use it or lose it” avoiding ‘ghost flights’ rule for 4 months – airlines want longer
The European Commission has now said it will suspend for 4 months the rules on using airport slots, that have forced airlines to keep empty ‘ghost flights’ in the air, as a result of coronavirus cancellations. It is now up to the European Parliament and Council to sign off on the proposal before the rules can be fully suspended - they meet next week. The suspension will be considered to start on 1st March, lasting until 30 June. It can also be extended if necessary. But the airlines want this extended to the end of October. So now airlines do not need to fly an empty plane, just to use that slot, without fear of losing lucrative airport slots in 2021. The current law stipulates that carriers have to use at least 80% of their allotted slots, or they are returned to a common pot for the next calendar year. As well as saving the airlines effort and cost, it will avoid unnecessary carbon emissions. The proposal also back dates the rules to 23 January 2020 from China-bound flights, as that was the first date when Beijing started to close air routes. Airlines are losing money, as passengers stay away. BA said it is likely they will lose a number of jobs, "perhaps for a short period, perhaps longer term.”
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Manston DCO decision postponed to May – but would be the first since the Appeal Court ruling on climate impact
Though it has not had much publicity outside east Kent, the application to turn Manston (which has been closed as an airport since May 2014) into a freight airport could be an important case. It was the first airport to have to take its plans through the DCO (Development Consent Order) process, dependant on the Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS). Manston is a crazy place to have a freight airport, being at the north eastern tip of Kent, miles from anywhere. It always failed as an airport in the past, largely due to its location. The Heathrow runway has been blocked by the Court of Appeal, which ruled (27th March) the ANPS is illegal, as it did not take carbon emissions into account properly. That has implications for Manston's plans. Already before the Court judgment, the Manston DCO had been delayed from 18th January, to 18th May. The initial DCO application had nothing on carbon emissions. Something was finally added, because of pressure from local campaigners. Now lawyers say the decision about Manston's DCO could have implications for other airport DCOs in future including Gatwick and Luton, as well as Heathrow.
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New report – if the UK seriously wants to be net-zero carbon by 2050, flying will need to be seriously reduced
A new report has been produced by the government-funded research group, called Catapult Energy Systems, whose computer models are used by the Committee on Climate Change, which advises government. The report called "Innovating to Net Zero" looked at various scenarios for the UK to cut its carbon emissions by 2050. It considers that the UK cannot go climate neutral much before 2050 unless people stop flying and eating red meat almost completely. It also warns that the British public do not look ready to take such steps and substantially change their lifestyle. For the world to have a realistic chance of avoiding an average global temperature rise of over 2 degrees C, carbon cuts internationally will have to be made well before 2050. The report says it might be possible for the UK to get to net zero by 2050, but only if ministers act much more quickly. And as well as cutting flying, the UK will only manage to continue with our current lifestyles, if there is a lot of progress on carbon capture and storage with bioenergy crops; hydrogen for a wide variety of uses if there is spare renewably generated electricity; and advanced nuclear power. Even if flying was almost eliminated, the UK is unlikely to reach net zero before 2045.
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Ban short-haul flights for climate? In EU poll by the European Investment Bank, 62% say yes
A majority of European citizens would support a ban on short-distance flights to fight climate change, according to a recent survey the European Investment Bank (EIB). Of 28,088 respondents to the survey, 62% favoured a ban. And 72% said they would support a carbon tax on flights. The poll, conducted in September-October 2019, covered the then-28 European Union member states, including Britain. It simply asked about support for a ban on short-distance flights and did not specify the length. Emissions from flights inside the European Economic Area are covered by the EU carbon market, the Emissions Trading System. These CO2 emissions increased in each of 5 years, 2014-2018, according to the latest available EU data. More people are aware of the climate impact of flying, and considering cutting down how much they fly. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said all sectors must contribute to the EU’s target to reduce the bloc’s net emissions to zero by 2050. The EIB said its survey showed Europeans might support action to tackle climate change, even when it impacts their daily lives.
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Biofuels (including for aviation) to drive massive increase in palm and soy demand by 2030
A new report by Rainforest Foundation Norway looks at the impact of global biofuel policies on tropical deforestation. Palm oil and soy, in particular, are biofuel feedstocks that are associated with high deforestation risk. The report analyses biofuel policies in all key markets and assesses. It found the impact on demand for palm oil and soy-based biofuels in the coming decade will be huge, and may rise by over 60 million more tonnes of palm oil by 2030. That is about 90% of current global palm oil production. The demand for soy oil might rise by over 40 million tonnes, about 75% of current production. This would cause an estimated 7 million hectares of deforestation, including up to 3.6 million hectares of peat drainage. There would be tragic loss of biodiversity, including charismatic species like orang utans. The deforestation would cause over 11 billion tonnes of extra CO2 entering the atmosphere, by 2030 (more than China's annual CO2 emissions). The aviation industry is potentially the largest consumer of high deforestation risk biofuels, followed by Indonesia and Brazil. The world is in a dual ecological crisis of climate change and biodiversity loss. This use of biofuels is NOT the answer, to either crisis.
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UK due to leave the EASA (European Aviation Safety Agency) by end of 2020, transferring all responsibilities to over-loaded CAA
At the end of 2020, when the Brexit transition period comes to an end, the UK will leave the EASA, the European Aviation Safety Agency. From 1st January 2021, responsibility for aircraft and aircraft technology certification, including on safety, across Great Britain will fall solely to the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA). Currently, the EASA, which is based in Cologne, handles all certification, standardisation, approvals and regulation of civil aircraft and aircraft technology for member countries. Grant Shapps hopes there is the expertise within the UK to carry out the necessary work. However, many British experts in this area and top staff now work in Europe, and may not want to return to the UK. To fill the UK roles, the CAA will have to offer significantly higher salaries. With budget cuts after Brexit, filling the jobs may be much harder than expected. The UK can opt to extend the transition period for membership, for 2 years, if it applies before 1 July. The CAA and DfT are already seriously under resourced, so with the added work load, there will be further significant strains put on them and their ability to respond to community concerns about aviation noise and flight paths.
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London City Airport backs down on key expansion proposals – like removing the 24 hour weekend flight ban period
London City Airport has dropped its controversial plans to get rid of the 24 hour weekend break from the planes (Sat 12.30pm to Sun 12.30pm), and also to operate more early morning and late evening flights. It told its Consultative Committee on 6th March that it would not be proceeding with these two key proposals it had outlined in its draft Master Plan which it consulted in earlier this year. Campaigners have worked very hard for this, and are delighted. The airport may still want ultimately to seek to lift the current annual cap on flight numbers, the other main proposal outlined in the draft Master Plan, but did not expect to do so any time soon. London City intends to publish its final Master Plan before the end of the month but has no immediate plans to put in a planning application for more flights. London City’s expansion plans had generated record levels of opposition from local authorities and communities impacted by the airport. The Mayor of London also came out in opposition. London City also told the Consultative Committee that it is continuing the process of reviewing its controversial flight paths as part of the wider airspace changes across London and the SE over the coming years.
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Southampton, Exeter, Newquay and Belfast City are the main regional airports likely to have their demand cut by loss of Flybe
The collapse of Flybe, which lost money year after year even when given repeated cash injections, puts the jobs of around 2,000 staff at risk. Almost 1,000 staff are based at Flybe’s Exeter headquarters. Other jobs in the supply chain, in several regions, will also be at risk. It will have considerable impacts on many regional airports, for which Flybe was one of the main airlines. About 95% of the flights using Southampton airport were Flybe. (Southampton is planning to get its runway, currently 1,723 metres in length, extended by 170 metres, to get in more larger planes and more traffic). The airline industry - and still the UK government - are keen to insist we need "regional connectivity" by air. In reality, in a carbon-constrained world, many journeys that do not involve crossing sea, can be done by rail, coach or even by road, with much lower carbon emissions. Other airports that will be seriously affected by the loss of Flybe are Exeter and Newquay, where Flybe operated the majority of flights. Belfast City Airport had about 80% of its flights by Flybe. Blue Islands, the Flybe franchise partner operates flights linking the Channel Islands with Bristol, London City and Southampton, said it was continuing its flights.
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Flybe collapses, despite huge investment by its owners – it is not getting more UK government cash
UK airline Flybe has collapsed into bankruptcy after months of talks with the government failed to secure a £100m loan. All flights have been cancelled. It was financially very weak, and the outbreak of Coronavirus hit its demand hard, speeding its demise. About 2,000 staff jobs are at risk. The government had rejected the idea of a state loan to the airline. Flybe had been told there might be a cut in Air Passenger Duty on domestic flights, but that would not happen fast enough to save the failing airline. Flybe was taken over in 2019 by "Connect Airways"— a consortium of Virgin Atlantic, Stobart Air and hedge fund Cyrus Capital - to prevent it falling into administration. Connect agreed in January to invest £30m into Flybe to continue operations, as part of a government rescue package that included APD cuts. Virgin Atlantic had invested over £135 million in Flybe to try to keep it going; that includes about £25m of the £30m committed in January 2020, alongside a "time to pay" arrangement with the Treasury on air passenger duty of £3.8m. Flybe’s administration follows last year’s failure of Thomas Cook, which also went bankrupt. Unless other airlines take up the Flybe routes, demand at many UK regional airports (eg. Southampton, Exeter, Newquay) will be hugely reduced.
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Leeds Bradford Airport expansion could now be in doubt – if the landmark Heathrow climate case can be used against it
The ruling on Heathrow's 3rd runway on 27th February, by the Court of Appeal, put the scheme seriously in doubt - on the grounds of its carbon emissions. The DfT had decided not to take proper account of the extra carbon emissions, in relation to the UK's commitments under the Paris Agreement, when it produced the Airports National Policy Statement . The ruling is ground-breaking, because it sets a global precedent that can now be used to challenge other developments which damage the environment. The expansion plans of Leeds Bradford would result in a possible increase in passengers from about 4 million per year now to about 7 million. This means the plans are not considered large enough to require the National Policy Statement and DCO route. Instead the application goes through the usual planning process. So the Heathrow ruling may not have a direct bearing on this case, though the principle of the need to properly account for carbon emissions from new developments, may be used to argue against it if it went to appeal. Leeds has declared a climate emergency, and its local Citizens' Assembly resolved that the airport should not expand, due to its carbon emissions.
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Heathrow investors may soon realise “the days of plenty are over”, with returns cut
Heathrow's planned 3rd runway plans took a very substantial knock on 27th March, when the 3 Appeal Court judges ruled that the Airports National Policy Statement was invalid. It had not properly taken carbon emissions, and the Paris Agreement, into account. The Government now has to decide what to do about the NPS. The scheme is looking less attractive for its investors. The Sunday Times has written that "Heathrow’s owners, which have siphoned off a stream of dividends over the past decade, are about to learn that the good times are coming to an end." ..."Heathrow was bought for £10.3bn as part of the airports monopoly BAA in 2006 by a consortium led by the Spanish infrastructure giant Ferrovial. After an initial period when lenders restricted dividends, payouts have flowed, while debt has soared. From 2012, the airport has paid out more than £4bn of dividends, including £500m announced last week." Currently Heathrow investors earn more, the more Heathrow spends and builds. "But that may be about to change..." The CAA may soon get much tighter on returns to investors, as they are being with NATS.
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Airlines, suffering from fewer passengers due to Coronavirus, want relaxation of 80% slot “use it or lose it” rule
The airlines are feeling the effect of the Coronavirus. It is largely by air travel that the virus has spread so widely, and so fast, to dozens of countries. But the impact of the virus is to reduce air travel, either by people being prevented from flying, or others choosing not to put themselves at risk. So flights are being cancelled, and airlines are worrying about their profits. Currently in the UK, and Europe and internationally at large enough airports, the slots are allocated - and there is a "use it or lose it" rule. If an airline does not use 80% of its slots, it risks losing them. Slots can be hugely valuable, at an airport like Heathrow. In the UK the slots are administered by ACL (Airport Coordination Limited). Airlines are now asking that the slot use rules should be relaxed, even just temporarily while the world waits to see how widespread the Coronavirus becomes. IATA has said it was contacting aviation regulators worldwide and requesting the usual rules governing the use of takeoff and landing slots be put on hold. That has been allowed occasionally in the past. Airlines often "cheat" on the 80% rule, flying small planes, or "ghost planes" to keep up the figure.
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Plans for new Lisbon airport opposed by local authorities, and the Dutch (for harm to national bird, the godwit)
There are plans to construct a new airport for Lisbon (Portugal) as the existing airport - Humberto Delgado Airport - is considered by the authorities to be full. Plans have been considered for many years, but a new airport at existing Montijo military air base, near Lisbon, got approval on 8th January 2019 when the government signed an agreement with ANA - Aeroportos de Portugal (the country's airports manager). The Montijos site is on the Tagus estuary, a nature reserve where the godwits, a threatened species, stop off on their way from Africa to the Netherlands. There is now considerable opposition from the Netherlands, where the godwit is seen as the national bird. The planned airport would devastate the areas where godwits feed, and many birds would be culled if the airport was built, for air passenger safety. There is now political controversy about the airport, as in Portuguese law, if local councils oppose a development, it is not permitted. The government wants to over-rule this ability, as various councils led by various political parties are blocking government plans. Due to costs, TAP Air Portugal, has firmly stated it would not move to the new airport.
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Letter in Maidenhead Advertiser, and also in the Slough & South Bucks Express and the Windsor, Ascot & Eton Express, showing up the misleading inaccuracies in “Back Heathrow” leaflets
Back Heathrow have distributed a leaflet that says - entirely inaccurately - that “current thinking is that electric aircraft will touch down at major international airports by 2030”, i.e. only 10 years away. That is very misleading. A letter in the Maidenhead Advertiser, the "Slough & South Bucks Express" and "Windsor, Ascot and Eton Express", by a local resident says that rather than purporting to be a residents' campaign group, Back Heathrow is in fact Heathrow’s own campaigner with large funds coming from Heathrow itself. Some other misinformation Back Heathrow puts out includes claims about increased car sharing, improvements in public transport and cutting vehicle generated local air pollution. The reality is that Heathrow car sharing has been promoted for decades for thousands of employees without much success. Heathrow loves air passengers arriving by car, as it makes vast amounts of money from its car parks. Back Heathrow says a 3rd runway “will create economic growth for our nation”, the DfT's ANPS of 2018 shows economic benefit of approximately zero (‘Net Present Value’ after costs over 60 years in the range -£2.5bn to +£2.9bn), even if the airport opened in 2026. That benefit is wiped out by it now being delayed by perhaps 4 years (3 by the CAA limit, and at least one by the Appeal Court judgement).
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Gatwick expansion – up to 15 mppa more – using main runway should be subject to planning controls
Gatwick airport intends to expand its number of flights and air passengers, both by increasing numbers on its current runway, and then also by moving its emergency runway slightly north by a few metres, so it can take more flights. The change of the emergency runway would require a Development Consent Order (DCO) as there would be more than 10 million annual passengers, and building work is needed. The increased use of the main runway could add another 15 million annual passengers, which should necessitate going through the DCO process, but as almost no building work is needed, Gatwick is aiming to by-pass this, and make the increases just through permitted development rights. The joint campaign coalition, "Gatwick's Big Enough" (GBE) wrote to the councils in areas affected by Gatwick on this matter. They have received a reply, that the councils believe there is little they can do about the expansion on the main runway, as there are no mechanisms under current planning law to require the airport to submit a planning application. GBE is taking legal advice on the matter. The Appeal Court ruling on the Heathrow runway and ANPS, about the need to take carbon emissions into account, may be helpful here.
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GACC welcomes the judgement by the Court of Appeal that ANPS was unlawful – that would also apply at Gatwick
GACC (Gatwick Area Conservation Campaign) welcomes the judgement by the Court of Appeal that the Government’s Airports National Policy (ANPS) was unlawful, as it failed to take into account the Government’s commitment to the provisions of the Paris Agreement on climate change. The ANPS was an important and relevant consideration in respect of applications for new runway capacity and other airport infrastructure elsewhere in London and the South East. GACC believes the Court’s decision therefore raises the bar for all airport expansion decisions. It is good news for communities impacted by any UK airport that wants to expand, and for our environment more widely. For Gatwick the Court’s decision, if confirmed by the Supreme Court, has important implications, as the climate impacts of a new Gatwick runway would be similar to those of Heathrow. Also if Gatwick tries to make greater use of its existing runway, adding another 50,000 annual flights, and another 12 million annual passengers, would be a huge increase in carbon emissions. This would be clearly contrary to the Government’s commitment to achieve net zero carbon by 2050.
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The implications of the Appeal Court decision will go far beyond just Heathrow, perhaps to all high carbon developments
The Appeal Court ruled the Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS) illegal, because it had not properly taken into account the obligation by the UK to consider its impact on obligations to the Paris Agreement. The ANPS should have - through the Planning Bill 2008 that set out what an NPS should include - contained an "explanation of how the policy takes account of government policy relating to the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change." It did not. The implications is the precedent set by the judgement on any large infrastructure project that requires an NPS. But it also goes wider. Many commentators have said this will require the UK government, and other governments, to take seriously their obligations to cut carbon emissions, through their Paris commitments. The court has shown that the Paris agreement has real teeth, and suggests that these targets must now be taken into account in all future big infrastructure projects, including plans for new roads (see below), airport expansion and the building of gas-fired power stations. The extent to which this applies to all planning applications, not just the largest (through the NPS/DCO process) will probably be determined in coming months, by the Courts.
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Heathrow expansion blocked by Court of Appeal ruling NPS illegal, for ignoring impact of carbon on Paris Agreement obligations
The Court of Appeal has ruled that the government’s decision to expand Heathrow was “unlawful”, on climate change grounds. This is one of the most important environmental law cases in this country for over a generation, and ground-breaking for ensuring carbon emissions are properly taken into account. The judgement, which sets a key legal precedent, said the government (Grayling as Sec of State for Transport) had wrongly ignored its international climate change commitments under the Paris Agreement. Such an omission was a fatal flaw to the lawfulness of the National Policy Statement, approving a 3rd Heathrow runway. Grayling had accepted flawed legal advice, implying that there was no need to consider obligations to cut carbon, through the Paris Agreement. This judgment has vital wider implications for keeping climate change at the heart of all planning decisions. From now on, every infrastructure spending decision in the UK could face legal challenge if it doesn't comply with the Climate Change Act, which mandates virtually zero emissions by 2050. The government has said it will not appeal to the Supreme Court.
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Heathrow expansion abandoned by government – which will not appeal court ruling that NPS was illegal
Heathrow expansion is now very unlikely, after the ruling by the Appeal Court that the government's approval of the Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS) was unlawful. Pushed through by Chris Grayling, as Secretary of State for Transport, it failed to take into account the UK’s climate change commitments. Lords Justice Lindblom, Singh and Haddon-Cave ruled the government did not take enough account of its commitment to the Paris Agreement on climate change when setting out its support for the proposals in its ANPS. The government should have given an explanation about how it was taken into account, but it did not. The UN’s Paris Agreement, which came into force in November 2016, commits signatories to take measures to limit global warming to well below 2C. The government saw the ruling last week, and could have appealed to the Supreme Court, but has decided not to do so. This instruction will have come from Boris Johnson, not only Grant Shapps. Shapps said: "We will set out our next steps in due course." It has become increasingly clear that the Heathrow runway could not pass necessary standards on noise, carbon, cost or air pollution. The legal judgement should be the final nail in its coffin.
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Appeal Court ruling on Heathrow expansion will be on Thurs 27th February – Theresa Villiers says the runway should be cancelled
Theresa Villiers – Secretary of State for Environment until a fortnight ago, when Boris had her moved - has spoken out against the Heathrow runway plan. She said the government should cancel it, as it risks worsening air quality and increasing noise pollution for thousands. Heathrow and its backers had failed to present a “convincing” enough case for the runway to go ahead. The judgement at the Court of Appeal will be handed down on 27th February, on the legal challenges against the government for its incorrect backing of the Airports National Policy Statement (ANPS). The DfT had failed to properly consider the impact of Heathrow expansion on the the UK's ambition to be carbon neutral by 2050, and its Paris Agreement obligations. One of the legal challenges is by Friends of the Earth, who have suggested this legal ruling could be the most important environmental law case in the UK for over a generation. Boris Johnson is aware that Heathrow cannot meet a range of conditions, on noise, air pollution, cost or carbon. Adam Afriyie, the Conservative MP for Windsor, said the runway scheme should be scrapped as it was “completely incompatible” with the UK's legally-binding climate target.
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New All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) formed, opposing Heathrow expansion
A cross-party group of MPs are joining forces to oppose Heathrow expansion, partly due to the impact it will have on other regions of the country. The group is the All-Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) on Heathrow Expansion and Regional Connectivity. Members include David Simmonds, the newly-elected MP for Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner. The APPG is reformed, due to being dissolved at the election. At its meeting on 25th February, a new report produced by the New Economics Foundation was publicised. This examines the impact of a 3rd runway on the rest of the country, revealing how the DfT has known for some time how Heathrow expansion would damage the regions economically and reduce jobs. It is likely that as many as 27,000 jobs would be lost to the regions as people move to London and the South East. Mr Simmonds said: “Heathrow expansion is being marketed as a benefit to UK PLC, but this report shows it just moves more pollution and economic activity into London, a dis-benefit to our capital and a loss to the regions we are determined to ‘level up’."
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Stansted passenger numbers continue to fall – indication that airport growth is not needed
Stansted Airport handled 1.9 million passengers in January, 30,000 fewer than the same month last year, making this its 7th consecutive month of decline. A number of reasons have been suggested for Stansted’s decline, including the non delivery of Boeing 737 Max aircraft to Ryanair, the collapse of Thomas Cook and now also the Coronavirus. However it is noteworthy that Stansted’s main competitor, London Luton Airport, achieved 6.8% growth in passenger numbers during the second half of 2019 whereas Stansted passenger numbers fell by 2.5%. Stop Stansted Expansion say these figures are all the more surprising in view of the many new routes which Stansted has announced in recent months, suggesting that many of its well-established routes have declined quite sharply. Stansted's cargo business also continues to be in decline with the tonnage carried in January down by 20.2% compared to the same month last year. This follows a 9.6% decline in cargo tonnage in 2019. Stop Stansted Expansion (SSE) Chairman Peter Sanders commented: “These latest Stansted Airport traffic figures provide further confirmation that there is no need to approve further expansion at Stansted for the foreseeable future."
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New Report shows Heathrow expansion to cost the regions £43bn and thousands of jobs over decades
An important new report, Baggage Claim, has been published, by the No 3rd Runway Coalition, on the impact of the runway on the regions. It shows the Government's own figures indicate that by 2050 the runway would divert 27,000 jobs - as well as GDP - from regions, into London and South East. This is the opposite of what the Government claims to be aiming for, to "level up" areas of the UK. The report finds that movement of jobs will impact on the national distribution of GDP; around £43 billion (net present value) would move out of the regions and into London and the South East, by 2050. The data is based on Government data secured by a number of FOI requests. Every region of the UK would lose out, with the greatest impact in the North West and West Midlands if expansion goes ahead. By 2050, the North West would lose up to £14bn in GDP growth and 15,000 jobs. Figures are available for each region. The impact would be to blight parts of the regions. The Coalition finds it incredible that the DfT has known about this, and the economic damage to the regions, but said nothing about it; details had to be extracted by FoI.
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Every UK airport has plans to expand – totals WAY above even the CCC advice of only 25% above current level
Every major commercial UK airport has plans to expand, with many hoping to double passenger numbers by 2030. This is in spite of the fact that the UK has the third-highest CO2-emitting aviation sector in the world, after China and the United States. But Brits love to fly and air travel is predicted to keep on increasing, rapidly - despite the UK in theory aiming for net zero carbon emissions in 30 years. Though the CCC advice is that UK aviation should not increase by more than 25% above current levels by 2050. Climate experts know the sector's planned growth should not be allowed. Some examples of the anticipated growth, from airport master plans are: Heathrow - growth from 80 million passengers per year (mppa) in 2018 to 110 mppa in 2030. Gatwick - growth from 46.1 mppa in 2018 to 70 mppa in 2030. Birmingham - growth from 12.4 mppa in 2018 to 18 mppa in 2030. Manchester - growth from 28.2 mppa in 2018 to 38 mppa in 2030. Leeds Bradford - growth from 4 mppa in 2018 to 7.1 mppa in 2030. Bristol - growth from 8.7 mppa in 2018 to 12.5 mppa in 2030. Doncaster Sheffield - growth from 1.2 mppa in 2018 to 3.5 mppa in 2030. Southampton - growth from 1.9 mppa in 2018 to 4.5 mppa in 2030. And so on ....
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In 2019 almost 50% of flights by men, and 33% by women, aged 20-45, were for stag and hen dos abroad
An environmental campaigning organisation, called Hubbub - who say they are helping people with "inspiration and practical actions that are good for you and the environment" has done some research on the flying behaviour associated with hen and stag parties. They found that about half of all flights taken by men aged 20-45 in 2019 were for stag dos, while just over a third of flights taken by women in the same age group were for hen dos. These hen and stag dos have become a booming industry, with people no longer content to remain in the UK, as flights are so cheap. But the Hubbub research showed about 60% of those asked felt that the jaunts were too long, expensive and involved excessive travel. About 30% felt resentful about the cost, and the time that sometimes had to be taken off annual holiday. About 60% of those surveyed preferred a UK-based hen or stag, because it was cheaper, easier to get to and a more flexible option. The expense of the foreign hen and stag dos were often considerable, and often higher than a comparable event in the UK. And do places like Prague and Gdansk really want hoards of drunken Brits? Another reason why millennials often have higher environmental footprints than the baby boomer generation.
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Heathrow expansion removed from DfT list of ministerial responsibilities for Aviation Minister, Kelly Tolhurst
Kelly Tolhurst has been appointed Aviation Minister (Parliamentary Under Secretary of State) at the DfT. She is the 6th Aviation minister in 3 years - they do not last long. In the DfT reshuffle, the specific mention of Heathrow has now been removed from the list of ministerial responsibilities. When the last Aviation Minister, Paul Maynard, had the job, his list of responsibilities included "Aviation (including Heathrow expansion). Now the equivalent list for Kelly Tolhurst just says "Aviation." This might imply the DfT now sees Heathrow as less important. The DfT were swift to say it was just a matter of wording, and a "stylistic difference"....
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Heathrow Hub asks Boris Johnson and Grant Shapps to order a Section 6 Review of the Heathrow 3rd runway NPS
Heathrow Hub, the rival Heathrow runway scheme that wants to effectively build a third runway, onto the western end of the northern runway, has now called on Boris Johnson and Grant Shapps to implement a "Section 6 review" of Heathrow 3rd runway. They say this is due to spiralling costs and also, bizarrely (as their plan also greatly increases CO2) "the incompatibility of the 3rd runway with the Government’s net zero carbon emissions by 2050." Heathrow Hub are very critical of many aspects of Heathrow's planning for its runway, including failure to provide information. They are particularly critical of the lack of details about Heathrow's surface access plans. The Information Commissioner’s Office (ICO) has now deemed Heathrow to be a Public Authority and has ordered it to comply with its obligations under the EIR - so it has to respond to FoI requests, such as on surface access plans. Heathrow Hub says Heathrow's latest consultation reveals a scheme that continues to change from the designated ANPS. The Government decision to approve the NPS and "designate" it is being challenged legally, with a judgement by the Court of Appeal expected on 28th February.
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Major airlines say they’re acting on climate change – research reveals how little they’ve achieved
Research by Griffith University, New Zealand, has shown that the climate claims of most airlines are pretty thin. Several airlines have announced plans to become “carbon neutral”, or trial new aviation fuels. But looking at the world's 58 largest airlines, when what is being done is compared to the continued growth in emissions, it is nowhere near enough. There have been improvements in the amount of carbon per seat kilometre - the "carbon efficiency." But that is eclipsed by growth in number of flights and passengers. The study found the improved efficiency (fleet renewal, engine efficiency, weight reductions and flight path optimisation) amounted to a 1% cut in emissions, while the industry aims to cut by 1.5%. That was totally outweighed by annual growth of 5.2% in the carbon emitted by the industry globally. Industry figures show global airlines produced 733 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions in 2014. Falling fares and more people wanting to fly saw airline emissions rise 23% in just five years, 2014 -19. Higher-income travellers from around the world have had disproportionately large aviation CO2 emissions; they form a total of 16% of global population, but 62% of global aviation CO2. People need to cut the amount they fly ...
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Non-CO2 climate impact of flying could be cut significantly with small altitude changes to avoid contrail formation
Some research by Imperial College, London, indicates that climate impact of aviation could be significantly reduced by making small changes to the altitudes at which planes fly. And more complete fuel burn. Contrails increase warming, due to a blanket effect, especially at night, preventing heat escaping out into space. This causes "radiative forcing." Contrails form as water condenses around the tiny black carbon particles in the jet exhaust. They form more, and last for longer, in some weather conditions than others. While most contrails disappear within minutes, some spread and mix with other contrails and clouds, forming ‘contrail cirrus’ which can linger for as long as 18 hours. The study by Imperial indicated that flying around 2,000 feet lower or higher - avoiding the more humid air - can reduce contrail formation. Reducing the contrails of the planes having the most climate warming impact would help slightly. Unlike contrails, the impact of the CO2 produced lasts for hundreds of years. Flying higher or lower than normal cruise height could increase jet fuel burn and CO2 emissions. Aviation expects to grow fast between now and 2050, with contrail warming a big problem. However, CORSIA ignores this additional non-CO2 warming impact of aviation.
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Teesside Airport flight subsidy – an unknown amount of public money – divides mayoral contenders
New flights from Teeside airport (used to be called Durham Tees Valley airport) are being subsidised by taxpayers. Tees Valley Combined Authority (TVCA) has contributed funds to support six routes from the airport. The amount has not been released due to "commercial sensitivity" but it was believed in 2018 that there would be subsidies of £1 million over 3 years. Now Tees Valley mayoral candidate Jessie Joe Jacobs said the figure should be made public. She said: "If subsidies are going to flights, are we going to see subsidies for buses for places like Port Clarence, where people cannot get to their local hospital without getting a taxi?" With more awareness of climate breakdown, flying shame and increased rail usage, is helping people to take domestic flights sensible use of scarce public funds? The airport was brought back into public hands at the start of last year for £40m as part of a £588.2m investment plan agreed by Labour council leaders and Tees Valley Mayor Houchen. It is owned in a 75/25 split between the TVCA and Stobart Aviation. Its business plan forecasts losses until 2025 after which it just might make a small profit. But who knows, so far ahead. Voting in the mayoral elections will take place in May.
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Heathrow ruled to be a “public authority” for information-access, so FoI requests can be made on environmental issues
The Information Commissioner's Office (ICO) has issued a decision, holding that Heathrow is a "public authority" for the purposes of the Environmental Information Regulations 2004 (EIR). This opens up the potential for anyone to ask HAL for information it holds relating to the environment, through a Freedom of Information (FoI) question. This could be on development applications, emissions, buildings, energy consumption, waste and noise. The EIR operate alongside the Freedom of Information Act (FOI Act), and oblige public authorities to disclose environmental information upon request (unless an exemption to disclosure applies). This has arisen because rival builder of Heathrow's runway etc, Arora, asked Heathrow for information. It was withheld. Arora then appealed to the Information Commissioner. They decided that as Heathrow "carries out functions of public administration" it is indeed a public authority, not just a company. This is justified "given the importance of the efficient provision of services at Heathrow Airport to the economy and citizens of the UK". Heathrow may appeal. Other airports might also be considered as public authorities in future...?
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Campaigners criticise CAA’s PIR report on Luton flight path changes and noise increase
The CAA have published the results of a post-implementation review (PIR), which analysed the impact of RNAV between its introduction in 2015 and 2017. RNAV means concentration of planes down a narrow flight path, intensifying noise for those over-flown. The CAA concluded that the airspace change "achieved the objectives set out in the original proposal".The introduction of RNAV has meant the majority of departures have moved closer to Harpenden, south Harpenden and the less densely-populated areas of Redbourn, while still not to flying directly over those areas. The number of flights increased by 30% between 2015 and 2017, but the PIR says the flight paths was not an "enabler" for an increase in airport capacity, or for an increase in flights during the early morning and late evenings. The CAA says the increase in noise complaints 2015 - 2017 was due to there being more plane - not the narrowing of the flight paths. Local campaigners are angry and disagree with the CAA, saying much of the noise nuisance is due to RNAV, not just more flights. Andrew Lambourne (LADACAN) commented: "The whole thing feels like a rubber-stamping exercise, and was not worth waiting three years for."
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Has Boris Johnson used approval for HS2 to kill Heathrow Expansion?
In announcing that the government is approving HS2, the Prime Minister spoke of the importance of delivering prosperity to every part of the country. Boris said: “Passengers arriving at Birmingham Airport will be able to get to central London by train in 38 minutes, which compares favourably with the time it takes to get from Heathrow by taxi .... [and is] considerably faster than the Piccadilly line”. Was this a subtle alert to the negative economic impacts on every part of the country (save the South East) of expanding Heathrow? The DfT has known for a long time that a 3rd Heathrow runway would mean most regional airports would lose significant volumes of flights. Asked about Heathrow, Boris said he sees no "immediate prospect" of bulldozers, or any start to work to expand Heathrow. If £106 billion of public money will be spent on HS2, (much of that on the London to Birmingham section) this will increase anger about the disparity of spending on the regions and the south-east. With more fast rail travel between London and Birmingham, air passenger demand from the south-east could move to Birmingham, reducing any logic there was for a larger Heathrow.
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