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Summaries of, and links to, the latest aviation news stories appear below. News is archived into topics
For a daily compilation of UK articles on national and regional transport issues, see Transportinfo.org.uk | For more stories about specific airports see Aviation Environment Federation Transport & Environment Anna Aero TravelMole Press releases from CAA IATA BA Ryanair easyJet Jet2.com For climate change ECEEE news and Guardian Climate and NoAA monthly analysisCheck Hansard for reports on Parliament |
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Latest news stories:
Calls to delay Luton’s expansion plans after news of airport sale by Abertis
Calls to delay planning permission for Luton airport's expansion have come following news that the airport may be sold off by its Spanish owner, the infrastructure group, Abertis. Protesters against the expansion of Luton argue any plans should be put on hold in the wake of a potential sale. Andrew Lambourne of HALE - Hertfordshire Against Luton Expansion - said: "In terms of Luton airport expansion the timing of this news couldn't be worse, since it clearly threatens the investment on which their hugely expensive expansion plans are based. "The airport has not yet secured its planning permission - and given the significant grounds for objection, this is not going to be an easy ride. " HALE said that a postponement of the planning application may well be in the best interests of Luton. "The last thing Luton Borough Council would want is for them to overstretch and then go bust."
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European Parliament’s Environment Committee rejects allowing more offsets for aviation industry
The Committee has rejected a proposal related to the offset limit for airlines. This proposal would have allowed intra-European flights to offset nearly 100% of their reduction obligations. Offsets are international credits, from carbon cuts outside the EU, and are not actual European carbon reductions. Allowing aviation to offset all their reduction obligations with offsets from outside the EU would add about 20 million international credits into the EU ETS. International credits are already responsible for two-thirds of the current EU ETS oversupply. The use of offsets has recently been criticised in lacking environmental integrity and further undermining the EU ETS. As the proposal has been rejected, only 15% of aviation allowances can be offsets, rather than up to almost 100% if the amendments had gone through. Carbon Market Watch hopes a global deal by ICAO will also contain strong quality provisions for international offsets.
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MEPs back the EU “Stop the Clock” proposal to delay inclusion of non-EU flights in ETS for one year
The European Parliament’s Environment Committee has voted in support of the EU Commission’s “Stop-the-Clock” proposal which delays the inclusion of flights to and from Europe from the EU ETS for just one year. This is conditional on progress being made by ICAO and the aim of the delay is to give ICAO time to negotiate a global agreement to address emissions from international aviation by autumn 2013, and they should have a realistic timetable through which to apply it. The one year suspension could only be extended if « clear and sufficient » progress is made within ICAO. Funds generated by the ETS would be used for a variety of measures to cut carbon emissions. The European Parliament Environment Committee also rejected a proposal on the offset limit for flights within the EU. This proposal would have allowed intra-European flights to offset nearly 100% of their reduction obligations, while adding about 20 million international credits into the EU ETS.
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All Richmond residents to get the chance in May to vote on future of Heathrow
There will be a borough-wide ballot in Richmond, aimed at showing the Government and the airport lobby the strength of opposition to any expansion of Heathrow. The Council says all residents in the borough will be sent a polling card in April that will ask them to declare their views both on expansion of the airport and the future of night flights. Last year the Council unanimously reaffirmed its position to resist any proposals to expand Heathrow after 2015 and resolved that any expansion of the airport should be blocked permanently. Residents will have 4 weeks to return their ballot vote with a big polling day event being held on the 16th May. Information will also be provided at local hustings events, briefings and a manifesto. Leader of the Council, Lord True said: “Together with Hillingdon Council we need to send a strong message to Central Government that further expansion of Heathrow is simply not acceptable to the majority of people in West London."
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Abertis considers sale of UK airports – Luton, Cardiff and Belfast International
Abertis, the Spanish owner of Luton, Cardiff and Belfast International airports, may sell them. According to The Sunday Times, Abertis has decided to sell the 3 airports as part of a review of its €1 billion transport division, and Citi and AZ Capital have been appointed to review the division. Luton airport has been surrounded by controversy over its development plans with the local council opposing Abertis’ plans for its development. The Welsh government is reported to be on the verge of buying Cardiff airport, which has had a large drop in traffic during the past few years. Albertis' airport assets in Bolivia were nationalised by President Evo Morales last week, and it has lost money in Spain in recent years. Campaigners at Luton said the timing of the sale was unfortunate, with the airport's current planning application - for which planning permission has not been secured. The sale threatens the investment on which the airport's hugely expensive expansion plans are based.
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Airports want easier Chinese visas for the UK as Chinese spend so much at the airport
Airport owners and retailers claim Chinese tour operators are “striking Britain from their itineraries” because of the UK’s “cumbersome” visa system, which is costing the UK economy £1.2bn in lost tourist revenue. (They are not blaming APD). The Airport Operators Association and the UK Travel Retail Forum have written to 4 cabinet ministers, including George Osborne and Theresa May, outlining the problem. Airport operators and retailers say Chinese visitors spend 9 times the amount of US visitors passing through duty free. The airports etc want the Government to simplify the UK’s visa regime because at present, Chinese visitors view the UK’s visa system as “expensive, bureaucratic and lacking in transparency”, and it is easier to visit Europe (which can be done on just one visa, which is cheaper than the UK visa). Currently, Chinese nationals wishing to visit Britain on holiday have to get their fingerprints taken at one of 12 authorities in China. They also have to fill out a lengthy application form and pay more than if they were to visit the Schengen area of 26 European countries.
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British Medical Journal: Experts call for stronger action on airports and health
In an editorial in a February edition of the BMJ, Professors Jangu Banatvala and Mala Rao give a stark warning once again about the direct health impacts of aviation arising from noise, pollution and the spread of communicable disease - as well as the indirect health impacts arising from greenhouse gas emissions and their effect on climate change. The impact of noise is well documented. In particular it results in poor performance at work from interrupted sleep and impaired learning development in primary school children living near airports. Stressing the importance of Health Impact Assessments (HIAs) before any policy decisions are made on major developments, so making sure that profits do not take precedence over health, Professors Banatvala and Rao say that the Government’s record on airports is ‘disappointing’. The editorial now calls on the Department of Health and the newly designated Public Health England to make their voices heard. ‘So far they have not.’
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Nantes: Opponents apply to European Commission to look into breaches of EU law by French government
The opponents of a new airport at Notre Dame des Landes, near Nantes, have applied to the Committee on Petitions of the European Parliament on breaches of European law, by the airport project. They are asking them to get the French government to look possible infringements of Community law. Opponents say there has been non-compliance with the Directive on the assessment of environment, on the water framework directive, and with what the directive says on "Birds" and "Habitats." Brussels confirmed it has requested information from the French government. Sandrine Bélier, a Green member of the European Parliament) said the Commission shared their analysis of a potential breach of Community law and they have launched a pre-litigation procedure called "EU Pilot". Sandrine said there is still time for legal, economic and environmental sense to prevail and for the repeal of a costly and mammoth project, which is contrary to the law.
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Heathrow resurfacing work on southern runway all summer means more noise for Kew and Barnes
Due to works to resurface Heathrow's southern runway, all night flights will be landing on the northern runway. This will mean flight paths at night will be directly over Kew and Barnes – between 10.30pm and 6am, for most of this summer from early March until the end of October. Heathrow says they need to carry out the resurfacing, and this has to be done about every 10 years. They say this has to be done at night, as the airport is so busy during the day. There is no increase in the overall number of flights but it does unfortunately mean people under the northern runway flight path will have more noise during the early morning whilst those near the southern runway will have less. Leader of Richmond Council, Lord True, who has arranged for a borough-wide ballot on Heathrow expansion to take place in May, said anyone disturbed by night flights should protest. People want most night flights to be stopped during the resurfacing, rather than having to endure the ordeal of weeks or months of broken sleep, with 4.30am wake up calls and insufferable noise.
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Welsh government buying Cardiff airport from Abertis in £50m cash deal by the end of March
The Welsh Government is expected to complete its acquisition of Cardiff Airport by the end of March in a straight cash deal understood to be around £50m with current owner Abertis. A due diligence process is being undertaken on behalf of the Welsh Government. The deal will not see the Welsh Government taking on any debt at the airport – which posted pre-tax losses of just over £300,000 in 2011. In the short to medium term the Welsh Government would need to inject about £6m a year in capital expenditure and airline route development support – including agreeing to underwrite any losses in the first few years accrued by airlines establishing new routes out of Cardiff. ie public subsidy. It is understood that representatives of the Welsh Government have already sounded out a number of low cost airlines over setting up operations, including Ryanair - which was asking too much. Discussions are continuing. It is unlikely that the airport, post deal, would be directly owned by the Welsh Government but by some special purpose vehicle instead.
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Plan revealed to dismantle planes at Durham Tees Valley Airport
Durham Tees Valley Airport is set to become a centre for the storage and dismantling of unused planes, and recycling parts. Sycamore Aviation has set up its base at the struggling airport and has already begun work on taking apart a number of airliners. The airport has a long runway, enabling it to handle larger planes, and plenty of hangar space. There are apparently "huge numbers" of aircraft retiring across Europe. A Sycamore Aviation spokesman said one airline alone is likely to need to dispose of 20 jumbo jets and 20 Boeing 737 aircraft in the next 3 -4 years - an illustration of the potential scale of demand. They say that across Europe between 500 to 700 aircraft a year need to be decommissioned and currently there are just not enough facilities to meet the demand. The number of passengers using Durham Tees Valley airport has fallen steadily from around 912,000 in 2006 to 165,000 in 2012.
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Cheaper BA flights if you only have hand luggage as airline takes on budget rivals
British Airways is to follow budget airline rivals by charging less if passengers travel with just hand luggage. BA said the cheaper fares – which will initially be on flights from Gatwick Airport to 5 European destinations (Amsterdam, Dubrovnik, Jersey, Tunis and Turin) – will give passengers ‘more choice’. The size of discounts will vary depending on the route but will range from £9 to £15.And BA said that holidaymakers who travel with luggage they wish to check in will not pay more to compensate for the lower ‘hand baggage only’ fares. BA is doing this in order to try to compete with Ryanair and Easyjet that charge more for passengers to check in baggage, effectively charging less for those who don’t. The director of Gatwick for BA said many holidaymakers already use the two-bag hand luggage policy. BA is looking at pleasing price-sensitive customers.
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Mango – a low-cost South African airline – has its sustainability claims rubbished
South African low-cost airline, Mango, has made a variety of sustainability claims such as "Mango's per passenger carbon footprint is the lowest in the South African skies" and that the airline is starting a "medium to long term rollout that will see Mango flights become carbon neutral within the next 5 years." On checking exactly what Mango is doing to achieve this, it appears from an article in TravelMole that they have put a bit of money into a vegetable gardening scheme. That appears to have helped a few local communities in a small way but not from any significant carbon reduction perspective. It has instead been more helpful in PR spin for Mango (and - says TravelMole - "dangerously close to the tokenism derided by the Mango CEO in relation to tree planting and offsets". The founder of The Carbon Consultancy said of Mango: "its very disappointing to find companies making apparently unsubstantiated claims for the purpose of reassuring customers. It suggests that the CEO of the company neither understands nor cares about the content of communications on the environment ."
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The clock has stopped but time is running out for ICAO – Comment by Bill Hemmings (T&E)
In a very interesting and detailed opinion by Bill Hemmings, of the Brussels-based European transport NGO, he explains what is happening - or rather not happening - at ICAO to deal with international aviation CO2 emissions. After the EU "stopped the clock" on the inclusion of emissions from flights into and out of Europe, ICAO was meant to be working diligently to find a global solution. If ICAO is to retain any credibility on this, some form of progress is needed so there is a realistic proposal by September, at its triennial general assembly. However, though the ICAO expert group had concluded that the favoured basis for a global market-based measure was either global carbon offsetting or emissions trading, it has spent little time moving these options forward. Instead, leading members are questioning the fundamental premise of why developing countries should participate at all in a global scheme. And as regards regional schemes like the EU’s, they are insisting that foreign carriers participate only by mutual agreement. It has opened a bottomless pit of national self-interest claims. Constructive progress looks unlikely any time soon.
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Colin Matthews defends steep rise in Heathrow landing charges despite revenue increase – to pay shareholders
Colin Matthews has defended steep rises in landing charges that will push up air fares by saying returns to investors now have to come first, despite a leap in revenues at Heathrow in 2012, due to record passenger numbers in 2012 and higher retail sales per passenger than in 2011. Spending on the airport facilities is to slow over the next 5 years while charges rise. Colin Matthews wants to "make a fair and market return to shareholders." It s largest shareholder is the consortium led by the Spanish Ferrovial group, which bought BAA for £10bn in 2006, although it has sold down its former majority holding to just over a third of shares. The sovereign wealth funds of Qatar, Singapore and China own a total of over 40%, with the rest held by Canadian pension fund CPDQ and private investment firm Alinda Capital Partners. Investors had spent £11bn on Heathrow since 2003 and would go elsewhere without returns. The airport paid a dividend of £240m last year, its first since the 2006 takeover.
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Bed protest. Hertfordshire & Bedfordshire residents call for a cut in Luton airport night flights
A group of protestors arrived at Luton Borough Council on 15th February to deliver a bed signed by people who are fed up with night noise from Luton Airport. The BANN (Beds Against Night Noise) protest was given good media coverage and made the point that it’s not only Hertfordshire which suffers noise and disturbance – plenty of residents in Bedfordshire are also woken up by late night arrivals, cargo planes and early morning departures. One of the protesters said the PR spin in Luton airport's Master Plan claimed they would ”consult” the public, and they were taking noise seriously by adding 6 new noise mitigations. However, those so-called mitigations would only affect a fraction of 1% of the total flights – and Luton plans to double night flights between 10pm and midnight and start the morning departure rush at 5am, which is utterly unacceptable. Local people are now demanding that there is legislation to control night flights at Luton in the same way as at other London airports. There is currently a petition to significantly reduce night flights at Luton, not increase them.
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Airlines charging passengers for ‘costs’ (for the EU ETS) they don’t have to pay – so making windfall profits
Airlines are making so-called ‘windfall profits’ of up to €1.3bn by charging passengers for permits to pollute, through the EU Emissions Trading System. The airlines no longer need to hand the permits over to the EU as the ETS has has been suspended for one year (except for flights within Europe). Transport & Environment is calling for the airlines not to retain these windfall profits, as keeping them is a betrayal of passengers’ contributions to fight climate change. T&E aviation manager Bill Hemmings said: ‘Passengers have paid towards fighting climate change, so it is unjust for airlines to retain these revenues as windfall profits." Instead, T&E is calling for any such profits to fund developing countries’ efforts to deal with the effects of climate change, through the UN's Green Climate Fund. There is little doubt that airlines raised their fares at the start of 2012, citing aviation’s entry into the ETS. Delta, for example, publicly announced ‘environmental’ charges on each leg of transatlantic flights.
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Sad story of Ciudad Real Airport – a massive white elephant – that sits abandoned in central Spain
Ciudad Real International Airport in central Spain opened in 2009 to much hype and fanfare. The airport, which was meant to handle overflow from Madrid's Barajas airport, cost some €1.1 billion to build, including a large amount of public funding for infrastructure. The site is next to a town of just 72,000 people on the sparsely populated Castilian plain and lies more than 140 miles from Madrid. It was even named after Don Quixote, the deluded Castilian gentleman of Cervantes’s famous novel, before wiser heads renamed it simply “Central”. Although launched by local private investors, the project has been fulsomely supported by the regional government of Castilla La Mancha and was financed by CCM, the regional savings bank, or caja. There were initially intended to be huge Don Quixote themed attraction nearby, which did not materialise. Only Vueling flew there. The airport closed, as a massively loss-making white elephant, in April 2012 and now sits almost abandoned - except for some car testing.
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Colin Matthews bothered Heathrow might be eclipsed by Dubai and Istanbul
Colin Matthews, head of Heathrow, believes the number of hub airports in Europe will in due course reduce from its current 5 down to 3. This will happen as long-haul air traffic moves to hubs in the Middle East, which are better geographically located than the UK. Airports in Dubai and Istanbul have huge projects to increase capacity, as they are in the right locations. These emerging hub airports will “over time” divert traffic from Europe. Colin Matthew says this will intensify competition between Heathrow, Amsterdam Schiphol, Frankfurt, Paris Charles de Gaulle and Madrid. For some reason, instead of logically therefore not needing larger airports here, he implies that it means the UK has to compete fiercely to remain a huge European hub. He does say “The question at some stage will be not so much shall we have two [hubs] but how on earth are we going to be sure we have one at all? There are 27 member states in the EU, most of them do not have a hub. “It is not a birthright that we have this connectivity.”
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Beja airport in Portugal – another that has virtually no passengers
Beja Airport is an unused Portuguese airport that opened its doors to civilian flights -having for years been a military base, on April 15, 2011, having scheduled several charter flights to the United Kingdom and to Cape Verde. In spite of being the only Portuguese airport in the Portuguese Alentejo region, with an area comparable to the size of Belgium, it has not attracted low cost carriers. Ryanair is not interested in it. v It has about one flight every two days at most, by one company. As of September 2012, plans to reconvert it into cargo use are under discussion. The only attractions in the area are a dam and an ostrich farm, in addition to some historical attractions in the relatively small local town. Yet another airport expanded at great cost, for passengers who did not materialise - with similarities to Castellon and Ciudad Real airports in Spain.
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787 grounding likely to be months, and notice given of delay to delivery of planes
Boeing is finally telling some of its customers not to expect the 787s they have ordered to be delivered as scheduled. While for some that is a big problem, for others it a relief that they will not have to take the aircraft just yet. Norwegian Air Shuttle was the first airline to confirm it has been alerted by Boeing. Deliveries of its first two aircraft, previously scheduled for April and June, are affected, and there is no new delivery date. The 787 grounding is likely going to be a matter of several, if not many, months, rather than a short-term issue that can be resolved quickly. The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has indicated that it will take weeks to identify the root causes of thermal runaway. Other airlines due to get their 787s in the next few months including BA, TUIfly, China Southern Airlines, Air China and Aeromexico. Boeing had planned to deliver more than 60 aircraft this year and was about to raise the monthly production rate to 10 from 5 by year-end.
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Bristol Airport flies more Welsh passengers than Cardiff
Provisional figures for 2012 indicate that more passengers from Wales use Bristol Airport than Cardiff. Over 1 million passengers used Cardiff in 2012, down about 200,000 in a year, with nearly 6 million at Bristol. The statistics suggest the scale of the task facing the Welsh government in improving Cardiff Airport's fortunes as ministers finalise a deal to buy it. It is estimated that it amounts to the equivalent of about 1.1m passengers over a year flying from Bristol, having come from or going to places in Wales. The Welsh government is expected to take over Cardiff Airport over the next few months after a slump in passenger numbers from a peak of 2m in 2007. It is negotiating a price with Spanish owners Abertis and carrying out various checks and balances on the airport's finances. The Mayor of Bristol says both airports have their problems, and it would be better if they could work together.
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Airbus A350 to avoid Boeing 787-style lithium-ion batteries and revert to tried and tested nickel-cadmium
Europe's Airbus is considering whether to drop lithium-ion batteries and switch back to traditional nickel-cadmium ones on its A350 passenger jet as investigators probe Boeing Dreamliner 787 safety incidents. There is consideration of whether the powerful but delicate backup energy systems are technically "mature", or predictable. Locating the reason for the battery fires is not proving easy, and some believe the technology is not yet mature enough for safe use. The US National Transportation Safety Board has said it does not yet know the cause. of the fire. There is concern that short circuiting in one cell of the battery spread to other cells, which was not meant to happen. The A350 would be the second large passenger jet to fly on lithium-ion batteries for backup electrical power after the Dreamliner. Last week Airbus said it had a plan B for its battery and time to respond to any rule changes, though nickel cadmium batteries are heavier, but only minimally - about the same on the A350 to one adult male passenger out of between 270 and 350 passengers.
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Luton local residents say “Enough is Enough” on aircraft noise – and do not accept the planned expansion
Luton airport has a consultation - that ends on 18th February - into their planning application, to almost double the number of passenger, from around 10 mppa now to 18mppa before 2030. The extra flights would mean a lot more noise for those living locally under flight paths. One of the local residents' groups, LANAG, has now submitted its response to the consultation, and say that while local residents support the desire for Luton to have a top quality airport, the airport already has twice the number of people affected by noise than there were in 2002 and 4 times the number of aircraft movements at night. They therefore say, “Enough is Enough” and do not accept the increases in aircraft movements and noise that would result from expansion. LANAG wants no more people affected by noise than currently , and say there must be a plan to take 2,800 people out of an environment that, according to the WHO is deleterious to health - due to noise levels.
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Important vote on EU ETS on 19th Feb – to delay sale of 900m tonnes of allowances
On February 19th, Europe’s emissions-trading system (ETS) faces a potentially fatal vote. A European Parliament committee will vote on whether to back a Commission plan to remove some of a huge surplus of carbon allowances from the ETS. It would delay the sale of about 900m tonnes of carbon allowances from around 2013-16 to 2019-20, and give the EC the power to rearrange the ETS’s schedule of auctions. Opposition to the proposal has been led by heavy industry and EU member Poland, which is highly dependent on carbon-intensive coal and argues there is no case for intervention in the market. The vote could not only determine whether the world’s biggest carbon-trading market survives but delay the emergence of a worldwide market, damage Europe’s environmental policies across the board and affect the prospects for a future treaty to limit greenhouse-gas emissions. However, even if the sale of the 900m tonnes was delayed, the oversupply of allowances would continue unless the auctions were cancelled, not just rescheduled
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Gatwick Airport wants freedom from regulation on prices by the CAA
With Heathrow and Stansted, Gatwick is one of only 3 UK airports that is subject to a price regime set by the CAA. It is arguing that should be allowed to negotiate landing charges directly with airlines, rather than being regulated, through entering into individual commercial agreements with airlines. Gatwick says such deals, which would be struck under a legally-binding framework, could incentivise airlines to offer more routes. Gatwick says even for airlines that didn’t strike commercial agreements, charges would still be lower, increasing by 1.3% above the RPI over the next 7 years. By comparison, under continued regulation, charges would increase 3.3% above RPI over 5 years - which would mean landing charges rising from £8.80 per passenger in 2014, to £11.45 by 2018/19. But Virgin Atlantic is not keen on the idea, and nor is easyJet. Virgin says "The CAA must continue to regulate to ensure that Gatwick delivers services our passengers need at a price which is good value for money."
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How climate change policy and Government forecasts mean new runways should be out of the question
The Aviation Environment Federation (AEF) has produced a policy briefing arguing that climate change considerations should rule out building any new runways in the UK. The paper shows how the latest official forecasts indicate that both passenger demand and CO2 will exceed the levels deemed compatible with the Climate Act by the Government’s independent climate advisers, the Committee on Climate Change, unless new constraints are imposed on aviation emissions. The growth in air passengers and in aviation carbon emissions exceed the levels required by the Climate Act even in the DfT's so-called "constrained" forecasts, released this January. The constrained forecasts are for future air passenger demand with no new runways being built, with Air Passenger Duty (APD) continuing, and with carbon costs being incorporated into ticket prices though the EU ETS or a comparable global scheme. So even with these constraints, the UK's aviation carbon emissions would be too high. Let alone with more runways.
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ONS figures show UK tourism deficit was £13.8 billion in 2012 (cf. £13.7bn in 2011 and £14.9bn in 2010)
The ONS reports that during 2012, UK residents made an estimated 56.6 million visits abroad, unchanged from 2011. Holiday visits fell 2% while those for business rose 2% and to visit friends or relatives rose 3%. Visits to Europe were broadly the same as 2011 but those to longer haul destinations were down (by 5% to North America and 2% to 'other countries'). UK residents spent £32.6 billion on visits abroad in 2012, an increase of 3% from 2011. By comparison, during 2012, overseas residents made an estimated 31.1 million visits to the UK, which is 1% more than in 2011. Holiday visits by overseas residents remained broadly the same, whereas visits for business and to visit friends or relatives both rose by 2%. Earnings from visits to the UK in 2012 year to date were £18.7 billion, 4% higher than in 2011. So UK residents spent £32.6 billion abroad, cf. £18.7 billion spent by overseas visitors here - giving a tourism deficit of some £13.9 billion for 2012. The deficit was £13.3 in 2011 and £14.9 in 2010.
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Gatwick Airport produces new Business Plan to 2024 with prices based on customer contracts
Gatwick Airport has produced its Revised Business Plan to 2024 (the last one went to 2020) which sets out their proposals for the coming years. They are putting forward a new deal that would allow Gatwick and its airline customers to develop bilateral, tailored contracts to replace the current system of regulation. The CAA invited Gatwick to propose such a framework in October 2012. Gatwick says this would give better levels of quality, price and service to airlines and passengers. Gatwick says this will promote competition between airports, and mean lower charges for airlines and passengers. Under the deal, passenger fees will rise from £8.80 in 2014 to a maximum of £10.68 in 2020/21. This means an increase of RPI+1.3% over a 7 year period rather than RPI +.3.3%. Gatwick claimed that if it stays within the current regulatory framework, the maximum per passenger fee would rise to £11.45 in 5 years. The CAA will come to a decision on the initial proposal on the airline contracts framework on 30 April 2013 and make a final decision in January 2014. Gatwick is planning to invest a further £1 billion in the airport between 2014 and 2019.
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Cross-Party letter sent to Transport Secretary – asking for final report of the Davies Commission to be published earlier
A sizeable group of MPs, peers and campaigns have joined with the leaders of nine local authorities to call on the Government to bring forward the publication date of the final report of the Airports Commission, headed by Sir Howard Davies. They have written to Transport Secretary, Patrick McLoughlin, asking for the report to be published well before the 2015 General Election. The scheduled date for publication is currently July 2015, two months after the Election. They are also calling on Sir Howard Davies to “lay out very clearly the direction of his thinking” in his interim report which is due at the end of this year. In the letter they argue that such a lengthy period of uncertainty is not at all helpful to businesses seeking to make investment decisions or indeed the wider economy of the UK. Also that the residents of West London deserve to know what implications the Commission’s recommendations will have on their lives.
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Heathrow to delay 2nd phase of work on Terminal 2 till around 2019 or later
Heathrow will seek to complete and open the first phase of Terminal 2 by 2014, enabling it to close Terminal 1. But Heathrow Airport has confirmed it is delaying the construction of the £2.5bn 2nd phase of its Terminal 2 building in its latest 5 year business plan (Q6). This means building work starting at the end of the 2014 - 2019 period. The business plan says Heathrow does not now expect to complete the project until “late in Q7” – meaning it could be as late as 2024 before the building is complete. In 2010 BAA said the building, which will add capacity for a further 10 million passengers a year, would be complete by 2019. Heathrow Airport still expects to spend £3bn over the Q6 period, with investment reducing year on year over the period, from £660m in 2014/15 to £464m in 2018/19. “The next quinquennium at BAA will largely be about asset replacement rather than major new projects." Launching the investment plans, Colin Matthews said Heathrow envisaged passenger numbers increasing from just under 70m now to around 72.6m by 2018-19 (compared with DfT forecasts of 75m by 2020 - see below). So no rapid need for space for 10 million more passengers.
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Study in Germany found significantly cheaper to make domestic trips by rail, not by air
The German newspaper Die Welt reports on a study which found that within Germany, it was generally much more expensive to fly that to take the train. They compared a number of routes, and found significant savings, with as much saved as 50% or more. The new study was undertaken between May to September and looked at 540 trips, with 270 flights with the corresponding number of rail journeys compared. The ten routes were selected with the highest volume of passengers. It emerged that travellling by rail between Munich and Frankfurt was 42% of the fare compared to the same route by air. On the Frankfurt-Hamburg route the saving was 57%, and between Hamburg and Munich 63.3%. On the route between Cologne/ Bonn-Berlin there were the greatest savings with 77.2%. They conclude that within Germany is makes financial sense to go by rail and not fly.
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Davey takes fight to ‘dogmatic’ and ‘blinkered’ climate sceptics
In a speech on 12th February at the Royal Society, Ed Davey, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, criticised climate sceptics - including some on the government's back benches - and their efforts to undermine action on climate change. He accuses climate sceptics of adopting a "dogmatic" and "blinkered" stance. He said he was reminded of the sentiment of the famous USA Today cartoon: "If we really are wrong about climate change, we will have created a better world for nothing. In reality, those who deny climate change and demand a halt to emissions reduction and mitigation work, want us to take a huge gamble with the future of every human being on the planet, every future human being, our children and grandchildren, and every other living species. We will not take that risk." Ed Davey wants scientists and researchers to play an even more proactive role in supporting the development of the green economy. [By contrast, the Davies Commission will be considering options to increase UK hub airport capacity, which would inevitably increase UK carbon emissions from air travel].
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Heathrow Airport produces its 5 year business plan with large rise in landing charges to pay for £3 billion investment
Heathrow Airport has produced its business plan for Q6 (which is the 6th period of 5 years, from April 2014 -2019). It plans to spend some £3 billion on infrastructure, like work on Terminal 2. As Heathrow and the CAA over-estimated the number of passengers using Heathrow over the past 3 years, their income has been lower. Therefore Heathrow plans to raise its landing charges per passenger, by as much as 30 -40% by 2019 - much more than inflation. It said its prices “inevitably” had to rise in order to ensure a “fair return” to its investors. The CAA will publish its final decision on whether it has approved Heathrow's proposals in January 2014. Launching the investment plans, Colin Matthews said the airport envisaged passenger numbers increasing from just under 70m now to around 72.6m by 2018-19. Heathrow's 5-year plan is separate from any decision on whether a 3rd runway is built. Maximum airport charges allowed by the CAA are calculated using a complex formula taking into account the total value of Heathrow’s assets, return on capital invested and forecast number of passengers.
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Patrick McLoughlin says taxpayer will not pay £30 billion for a new hub airport
Speaking at the Commons Transport Select Committee on 11th February, the Transport Secretary, Patrick McLoughlin said that the estimates for a new hub airport for the UK were up to £80 million. A report by Oxera reported recently that a new 4-runway hub airport could need up to £30bn of public subsidy, mainly to cover road and rail links. Mr McLoughlin called these “very substantial figures” and said “We do not generally subsidise airports . . . I am not looking for ways of spending extra money on something provided by the private sector". Airports in the past have had public subsidies, through road building paid for by the public purse, that benefits the airport. He highlighted how much of the UK’s aviation infrastructure was privately funded. Boris gave evidence, at the same session, promoting his view that there was a need for a new hub, other than Heathrow, and this should be at one of two sites in the Thames Estuary, or at Stansted.
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Boris targets Arab states in bid to raise £80bn for a new airport
Boris Johnson plans to take a week-long tour of the Gulf states in mid-April, to drum up financial backing for his plans for a new international airport. He intends to visit Dubai, Qatar and Kuwait to raise up to £80 billion. He still wants a Thames estuary mega-hub airport, but his senior aides consider expansion of Stansted a more realistic option. Boris says a new hub airport, wherever it is, could be delivered with private finance and operated as a viable commercial business. His £80 million estimate covers the cost of terminals, runways, ancillary facilities and rail and road access. He was inspired by Hyderabad’s “aerotropolis”,30% funded by money from Gulf states. Mr Johnson also announced a team of experts including British-Iraqi architect Zaha Hadid, designer of the Olympic aquatics centre,to draw up plans for a hub east of London. Other advisers include Pascall+Watson, which designed Heathrow Terminal 5 and the redevelopment of St Pancras station, and Atkins, which worked on the Olympics.
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Nantes airport opponents plan 25 km human chain around proposed airport site on 11th May
The opponents of the planned replacement airport for Nantes, at Notre-Dame-des-Landes are planning to make a massive 25km long human chain, on 11th May at 2pm. The chain will surround the ZAD (what they call the Zone á Dèfendre) where the airport is planned, and which the opponents have fought hard to occupy over the past 6 months. It will go along local roads and lanes. The organisers hope to get at least 40,000 people and perhaps 80,000. The chain will demonstrate the extent of the opposition to this new airport, which is regarded as unnecessary, hugely damaging to the environment and local farming, a white elephant and economically unjustifiable. Planning has been going on for several months already.
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The Trials of Heathrow – “Operational Freedoms”, “Respite” – layman’s guide to what’s going on and what it means
The Operational Freedoms trials at Heathrow have been going for the past year, and are due to end at the end of February. The reports about the trials are somewhat baffling documents to the non-expert, and some clarity is needed. There are also some trials taking place at present on flight paths at night, in east and south east London, to see if residents can be given some respite periods. These are both quite separate from the threat of both Heathrow runways being used, all day, for both landings at take-offs at the same time (called mixed-mode, in contrast to the current system, called runway alternation). John Stewart has done a short briefing on the trials, to help everyone understand the basics of what is going on.
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Head of Qatar Airlines, Al Baker, joins Heathrow board as its 2nd Qatari member
The head of Qatar Airways who has said the prospects for the UK economy would be “catastrophic” without a third runway at Heathrow has joined the board of the airport’s parent company. He joins Ali Bouzarif, who is from the Qatar Investment Authority, taking up the two seats handed to Qatar Holding in return for the 20% stake it bought in the airport conglomerate last October. The two men have been appointed to represent the interest of the sovereign wealth fund and its investment. Their appointment has not yet been announced by Heathrow, and they are not yet listed on its Board members website. Qatar Airlines is part-owned by the Qatari royal family. The appointment of Al Baker has the potential to anger other airlines, particularly rivals from the Middle East, as some may fear he may hold more sway when further slots become available. Qatar owns the Shard, part of Canary Wharf, part of Barclays, the Olympic Village, part of Sainsburys, part of the Stock Exchange, Harrods etc.
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Heathrow publishes its report on Phase 2 of its Operational Freedoms Trial
The Heathrow Operational Freedoms Trials will end on 28 th February, a month earlier than planned, as enough data has been gathered. The first report on the trials was produced in April 2012. Now the second report has been published, for the period July to October 2012. It is a complicated and technical document, that is not particularly accessible to the non-expert! However, in its conclusions it says that during the trial there were (on westerly operations) about 22 extra flights on the other runway, which would not normally happen, taking the number from an average of 15 to 37 per day, as this could be done if there was a 10 minute delay trigger. They also say there was a very tiny reduction in stacking time and thus fuel burned, though this may also be due to other factors. They also say the number of complaints was significantly up, that about 80% of the enquiries were accounted for by 10% of the callers, and about 60% of the callers made contact only once.
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Noise problems for some south east London residents from night noise trial
Heathrow Airport is currently running a trial, to see whether giving residents in one block of airspace in south east London, between 11.30pm and 6am, for some weeks, makes a difference. The trial is intended to give respite from night flights to one area for a week, with the planes then being directed over that area for another week. So people get a week off from the night disturbance. However, some of planes have been flying a route between the blocks of airspace, so residents there have been suffering more night noise than usual, while others have had less. There have been many complaints from Brockley, an area between Lewisham and Greenwich, and Assembly Member Darren Johnson has taken an interest in the issue. This trial ends in March. This is a quite different trial to the Operational Freedoms trials at Heathrow, looking into use of a different runway in order to reduce delays when there are specific problems. The Operational Freedoms trials are ending a month earlier than intended, on 28th February.
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Flybe & Ryanair agree possible deal for new Irish carrier – “Flybe Ireland”
Flybe and Ryanair have agreed a deal which could see the creation of a new carrier under the Flybe Ireland brand, with Ryanair transferring 43 European routes and 9 Airbus A320 aircraft and injecting €100m into the airline. The agreement is part of Ryanair’s package of concessions submitted to the European Commission in its latest attempt to win approval for its takeover bid for Aer Lingus. Ryanair would also transfer “the requisite number of flight crew, aircraft engineers, management and facilities”, to the new Flybe Ireland, and “the required number of slots to operate the 43 routes”. Flybe would purchase the Flybe Ireland brand for €1 million, and Ryanair would inject €100 million of cash into the carrier, as well as the forward sales cash from the 43 routes. Flybe Ireland would retain the right to use the Aer Lingus brand for up to 3 years after the transaction. The European Commission has expressed concerns about the negative consequences for competition if Ireland’s two main airlines are allowed to combine.
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Willie Walsh knows there will be no Heathrow 3rd runway. He is against a Thames hub, or a new runway at Gatwick or Stansted.
Speaking at the Business Travel Show in London, Willie Walsh said the government's strategy to increase airport capacity in the south east would fail. He said the Airports Commission would have little impact, and also that there will not be a third runway at Heathrow. He is planning his future business strategy without one, content to have more slots at Heathrow, so other airlines there cannot get them. He is against a new runway at Gatwick or at Stansted, and says BA would not pay anything towards either. “I am not going to spend one penny on new runways at Stansted or Gatwick.” He is also against a new Thames estuary hub airport. "Building a new hub airport would be “economic suicide” as it would never be able to secure commercial funding and the charges to airlines were likely to be “excessive” to pay for the project." You can see why Simon Burns told the aviation industry to find some agreement among itself, on what it wants. They are truly divided.
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Transport Minister, Simon Burns, tells aviation industry to agree among itself on airport capacity
The transport minister has told the aviation industry it must reach “consensus” before the debate on aviation capacity can move forward. Simon Burns was speaking at the annual British Air Transport Association (BATA) dinner in London, where he said the aviation debate needed agreement from within the industry itself. His words were: "Consensus between politicians, across communities and yes…even within the aviation industry itself." He said: “Progress is being squeezed between the rock of local issues and the hard place of national interests.” He said we all need to be part of the process, and "Communities and companies, politicians and policy-makers, economists and environmentalists…..all sides of the debate, making their case but listening to and seeking to understand the arguments of others as well." Also "All sides in this debate need to approach the issue with fresh eyes."
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Nantes: Legal victory for opponents in Notre-Dame-des-Landes – delay in expropriations of perhaps over 2 years
The Supreme Court in France has ruled that no expulsions will be made at Notre-Dame-des-Landes (for the planned new airport at Nantes). Lawyers say the delay could be for at least two and a half years. The Court made its judgement on January 29, and this means is put on hold until the outcome of the other legal remedies. There are at least 5 legal appeals to be decided. The company, Vinci, that plans to build the airport, will not be able to move the protesters - for a long time. The expropriate orders cannot be valid until the administrative judge confirms the legality of previous judgements listing the plots of land to expropriate people from. The company AGO (Airports Great-West), wanted the immediate rejection of the appeal, without waiting for the completion of administrative remedies. Meanwhile, farmers and their animals have re-occupied Bellevue farm, which had been cleared earlier.
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PwC report on APD met by dismissive comments from Treasury – Chancellor has no intention of lowering APD
The 4 largest airlines in the UK (British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, EasyJet and Ryanair) commissioned a report from PwC on Air Passenger Duty (APD). The intention was to try and get APD reduced, or removed altogether. PwC put together arguments that the UK economy would benefit, if flyers could fly slightly more cheaply. There was a range of arguments, including more tax take, more investment, spin offs of all sorts. However, this has cut no ice with the Treasury. The pressure from the 4 airlines got a frosty response from the Treasury, which made clear that the Chancellor had no intention of lowering APD. The FT reports that a Treasury spokesperson said APD, which is forecast to bring in £2.9bn this year, makes an “essential contribution” towards helping meet the government’s deficit reduction plans. “We do not recognise the figures in this report or agree with the assumptions behind it,” the Treasury said. The report also had to admit that making flying a bit cheaper would have a negative impact on parts of the UK economy, as yet more Brits took they money to spend abroad.
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Mixed-mode at Heathrow not likely – “means a lot of pain for not much gain”
Heathrow Airport has dropped its support for mixed-mode. The Times reports that Heathrow is not likely to be able to greatly increase the number of flights using the airport, by bringing in more mixed-mode (where planes both land and take off on the same runway). At present, one runway is used solely for take-offs and the other for landings. The roles are swapped at 3pm each day, to give residents who are over flown some respite from noise. It is thought that in its submission to the Airports Commission, Heathrow will say that even though mixed-mode could increase capacity by some 10%, it would be more trouble than it is worth and there would be a huge public backlash. Ministers had hoped that Heathrow would introduce “mixed-mode” arrangements to boost flight numbers as an interim measure. Heathrow would require a planning inquiry to increase the cap of 480,000 flights a year. That could take 3 years, even judicial review. It would also need up to 2 years to build new taxiing routes to and from terminals, to use mixed-mode.
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Gatwick airport employs PR agencies to help sway opinion in favour of 2nd runway
Gatwick Airport has brought in Fishburn Hedges (a corporate PR agency) and the London Communications Agency on an integrated PR and public affairs brief, in order to try to drum up support for building a 2nd runway. Both agencies will work directly with the airport's communications staff. They will be aiming to work at the local and regional level to "engage key stakeholders in London and West Sussex." Gatwick is currently developing detailed expansion plans that could double the airport’s annual capacity to around 70 million passengers and will submit its case to the Airports Commission shortly. Local campaigners have fought the threat of a second runway for years, as it would have seriously negative environmental and quality of life impacts for the area. Gatwick is legally prevented from starting a 2nd runway before 2019.
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Airlines have another go at trying to get rid of APD. Reminiscent of turkeys and Christmas.
EasyJet has produced two press releases, making out that a new study done for the airline industry shows that the UK economy would benefit if Air Passenger Duty was cut. EasyJet, BA, Virgin and Ryanair commissioned PwC to investigate the possible effect of abolishing APD. Using elaborate contortions of facts and logic, and glossing over the point that the main beneficiaries of abolishing the tax would be themselves (not UK plc) they ignore the inconvenient facts that the majority of air travel takes Brits abroad, to spend their money elsewhere. Only a minority - around 20% at most - of air passengers from the UK are on business. The study also ignores the fact that air travel pays no VAT and no fuel duty - making it a very special case, and very under-taxed in comparison to other sectors. Much of the "logic" behind the calculations by PwC of the suggested economic benefits of removing APD involve indirect effects, such as boosting tax take in a variety of sectors, increasing investment, and presumed spin off effects of this over time. All very dubious. No industry likes to pay tax, but there is no reason why air travel - largely discretionary spending by the better off - should escape a fair level of tax. These APD claims by the 4 airlines really are stunning nonsense.
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Heathrow to raise its airline charges, from current £17 per passenger, to raise £3 billion for huge modernisation
Heathrow airport will announce modernisation plans later this month. These will cost some £3 billion and cover the period 2014 - 2019. This follows a £5bn investment plan between 2008 and 2013. Heathrow is also intending to increase its airline charges, with rises in costs rising from the current level of £17 per passenger to perhaps up to £25. These rises are above the level of inflation. Heathrow says it is raising the charge because it has had 10% fewer passengers than originally predicted using the airport recently due to the recession. This means Heathrow now has to cover a £646m shortfall and it needs to make up the difference by higher charges. Heathrow airport is also still paying for investments made in the new Terminals 2 and 5. Colin Matthews, the chief executive of Heathrow, says the modernisation is needed in order to keep Heathrow as the UK’s leading airport. The investmentwill include investment in Terminals 5 and 2, as well as improving baggage handling facilities and building new stands for the Airbus A380.
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Whisper it! Heathrow 3rd runway is losing the support of business – John Stewart blog
John Stewart, writing in a blog for HACAN (the Heathrow Association for the Control of Aircraft Noise), says the enthusiasm even of the two big business organisations, the CBI (Confederation of British Industry) and London First for a 3rd runway at Heathrow is reduced. Business people tend to be realists. Many now believe that, in the real world, a third runway will not happen. All political parties are opposed to a 3rd runway. Many politicians realise, and have for some time, that a third runway is politically untenable. British Airway’s boss Willie Walsh is planning his business on the assumption it will not happen. ?A Heathrow 3rd runway cannot be the quick, relatively cheap solution business and government are looking for. Even if a new government gave it permission after the 2015 General Election it would be over a decade after that before a runway would be up and running. - and that is assuming the opposition wouldn’t kill it off a second time.
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Airports Commission Publishes Guidance Document and First Discussion Paper
The Airports Commission, under Sir Howard Davies, has now published 2 documents that will begin its dialogue with stakeholders, including the public, on the subject of aviation capacity. The first publication is a guidance document which serves as an invitation for parties with an interest in the future of the UK’s aviation policy to submit their ideas for making best use of existing capacity and on adding new capacity in the longer term. The document seeks views on the short, medium and long term options and provides parties making submissions with information on the commission’s timetable of work, as well as guidance on the factors that are of interest to the commission. The second paper is a discussion paper on demand forecasting. The paper seeks to examine the role of forecasting as a tool to help enable the commission in addressing the range of issues that will play a part in their assessment of the evidence on the nature, scale and timing of the UK’s future aviation capacity and connectivity needs. There are a range of deadline dates for comments on different aspects - the two earliest deadlines being 15th March 2013.
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NATS meets its target in 2012 to organise UK airspace to save planes wasting fuel
NATS - which provides air traffic navigation services for the UK - says it has met its target for 2012, in terms of organising airspace to minimise the amount of fuel burnt by aircraft, and hence their CO2 emissions. Its scheme, called 3Di, aims to keep planes flying optimally in terms of both their height, the amount of level flight, and the distance they have to travel. The ideal is for planes to land directly, on a straight line, coming down by continuous descent approach. With the airspace over much of the UK being some of the most crowded in the world, such an ideal is not always possible. Each flight gets a 3Di score, and then NATS gets a total score for the year. If NATS meets a 3Di score each year of 24, it meets its requirements. If the score is over 27, it gets penalised. If below 21, NATS gets bonuses. In 2012 its score was 23.9.
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Why the argument that flying does not add to carbon emissions – because it is all taken care of by the ETS – is wrong
An article appeared in the Telegraph on 30th January, by Louise Gray, reporting on a paper by an Economics lecturer at the University of East Anglia (UEA). It was about consumer behaviour in relation to carbon emissions, and makes the case that cutting down on flying has no effect on total EU carbon emissions, as flying is taken into account in the Emissions Trading System (ETS). It also made out that other actions, like reducing use of electricity also have no effect, but cutting consumption of meat, reducing use of petrol or diesel, or using less gas for house heating would have an impact - as those sectors are outside the ETS. Being told that flying has no impact on climate is an appealing message. However, many commentators have explained that this just is not correct. The ETS would only have this effect if the system was working optimally, which it is not. It would only work if the caps on carbon were tight, and tightening (which they are not at present) and if the price of carbon was high (it is at an all time low at present, at around €2 - 3). The non-CO2 emissions from flying are not taken account in the ETS. Therefore the argument that not flying has no effect is not borne out. It is just not correct.
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Global air passenger demand grew by 5.3% in 2012, compared to 5.9% in 2011
IATA figures for 2012 show that globally the number of passenger kilometers (RPK) flown rose by 5.3% compared to 2011. A year earlier, the number of passenger kilometers globally had risen by 5.9%, so growth in 2012 was slower. Over the past 20 years, RPK growth has averaged 5%. Globally RPKs rose by 6% for international flights, and 4% for domestic flights. The Middle East had the fastest rise, at 15.2% of RPKs, while growth in North America was only 1.3%. Chinese domestic passengers increased by 9.5% while those in India fell by - 2.1%. Overall airlines made an estimated $6.7 billion profit in 2012. For Europe the increase in RPKs was 5.1% in 2012, sharply down on the 9.5% growth of 2011. Growth in Europe was generated by the long-haul performance of Eurozone airlines (within-EU travel stagnated due to slow economic growth). About a quarter of the growth in European airline international traffic came from airlines outside of the Eurozone (Turkey being a major contributor). Air cargo - freight tonne kilometers - fell globally by - 1.5% compared to 2011, and fell - 2.9% in Europe.
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Expected drop in demand for air travel seriously undermines rationale for airport expansion or new runways
The anticipated number of people wanting to fly from British airports in future has been cut substantially in official forecasts to reflect the nation's economic decline. This means that now official reason for doubting the aviation industry's claim that new airports are urgently needed to meet demand. However, the DfT said the figures meant all airports in London and the south-east would probably be operating at full capacity by 2030, though it could take until 2040 for that to happen. While in 2003 the DfT anticipated some 495 million passengers per year passing through UK airports, by the 2009 forecast this had dropped to 465 million, and by 2011 it was 345 million. Now that figure is 315 million - some 7% lower even than the 2011 figure. Even with the 345 million passenger forecast, it was very borderline whether any new runways were needed for the London area. The new forecasts reinforce the doubt. As there will be larger planes used in future, the anticipated increase in passengers can be accommodated on the existing runways. The DfT does not anticipate any significant rise in the proportion of business passengers, out to 2050.
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Government’s new air traffic forecasts show no case for Stansted expansion
Stop Stansted Expansion (SSE), commenting on the new DfT air passenger forecasts, say that even in 2050 Stansted would be able to meet all its market demand without any need for a second runway. For Stansted, which handled 17.5 million passengers last year, the DfT predicts unconstrained demand of 26 million passengers in 2030 and of 38 million passengers in 2050. SSE say“These new official Government forecasts are far more credible than anything we have seen before, and far less threatening. The new DfT forecasts are also very much in line with the aspirations of Stansted’s new owners, Manchester Airport Group (MAG), whose Chief Executive, Charlie Cornish, has set his sights on restoring Stansted to its 2007 traffic peak within a decade. That would mean a return to an annual throughput of 24 million passengers by 2022. SSE say that amidst all the hot air from Boris about building a 4-runway ‘mega-hub’ at Stansted, it’s refreshing to have some realism from the DfT and MAG. SSE hope that removing the threat of a new runway once and for all would will lay the foundations for a vastly improved long term relationship with the local community.
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New Air traffic forecasts: Government expects growth in air travel to slow down considerably
The Department for Transport expects the rate of growth in air travel to slow down considerably over the coming decades. Their passenger forecasts published late yesterday expect demand for air travel to increase by just 1%-3% a year up to 2050 compared to historical growth rates of 5% a year over the last 40 years. The DfT lists 4 reasons for the slow down in growth for air travel: - higher oil prices; - an end to the decline in average fares seen in the last two decades; - the maturity of the air travel market to and from the UK; - and the availability of alternative modes of travel. The Department estimates that the major South East airports will be full by 2030 but recognizes there is some uncertainty about this: “ there is a range around this projection and they could be full as soon as 2025 or as late as 2040”. The central forecast, taking into account the impact of capacity constraints, is for passenger numbers at UK airports to increase from 219 million passengers in 2011 to 315 million in 2030 and 445 million by 2050. Compared to the DfT forecasts in August 2011, these forecasts are 6% lower for 2030 and 5% lower for 2050. Any proposals for airport expansion must be seen in this light.
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Heathrow spur from HS2 put on hold, causing continuing uncertainty and blight
Phase 2 of High Speed 2 has been announced, and the planned spur taking HS2 to Heathrow has been put on hold until after the Davies Commission’s review of Britain’s hub capacity is completed in 2015. The HS2 document says: “there would still be the opportunity to consult separately at a later point and include the Heathrow spur in legislation for Phase Two without any impact on the delivery time if that fits with the recommendations of the Commission.” This leaves uncertainty for local communities that could be blighted by the Heathrow link, and people want to know if local areas still be safeguarded and eligible for compensation. Nobody knows yet if Phase 1 will continue to be built as proposed, in order to keep options open – causing uncertainty, blight, and suffering to residents and businesses whilst leaving them ineligible for compensation. The Government has also launched a consultation on an Exceptional Hardship Scheme for Leeds, Manchester and the proposed Heathrow spur, to assist people who need to urgency sell their home or business.
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Luton airport planning application would increase night flights (11pm to 7am) by 50%
Local campaign group HALE (Hertfordshire Against Luton Expansion) says that Luton Airport’s expansion plans are based on projections to increase flights at night by 50%. This is based on information in the airport’s planning application which shows that the number of take-offs and landings between 11pm and 7am is projected to rise to 52 by 2028, compared to 34 in 2011. HALE points out that this is just the average figure – during the summer peak there could be as many as 80 flights each night. There is a public consultation on the application until 18th February. HALE is urging people to respond to this planning application by demanding that Luton Borough Council forces its Airport to reduce, not increase, night flights; to monitor and fine night arrivals as well as night departures; and to install a noise monitor on the approach to runway 08 for the purpose.
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Phase 2 of HS2 announced, with no spur to Heathrow – though that could be added later
The government has announced details of the 2nd phase of High Speed 2, from Birmingham north to Leeds and to Manchester. The Chancellor, George Osborne, predicted the investment would become “the engine of growth” in the north of England and the Midlands. The government is due to finalise the precise route of HS2 next year in advance of legislation in 2015 - though it is likely to be delayed by a flood of judicial reviews and court actions over the legality of the consultation process. These could delay planning authorisation, and ultimately require routes to be heavily redrafted. Instead of work on the first phase, to Birmingham, starting in 2017, it could be delayed till 2022. A planned spur taking HS2 to Heathrow has been put on hold until after the Davies review of Britain’s hub capacity is completed in 2015. The HS2 document says: "there would still be the opportunity to consult separately at a later point and include the Heathrow spur in legislation for Phase Two without any impact on the delivery time if that fits with the recommendations of the Commission." Meanwhile, a useful piece by Christian Wolmar sets out the main reasons by HS2 is not a wise plan, and not value for money, or even of environmental benefit.
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Europe’s climate scheme goes up in smoke – price of carbon in ETS falls to rock bottom
Carbon trading, one of the major European Union policies designed to combat climate change, is failing. A combination of successful lobbying by industry bodies, political interference and lack of economic growth has wrecked the scheme. It is now cheaper to pollute the atmosphere than to invest in becoming energy-efficient. At its peak, the cost of a tonne of carbon reached €30 in 2008. It was around €10 - 15 in 2011; around €7 - 9 in 2012. Earlier this month dropped below €5 for the first time, and it has now fallen to €2.81 - an all time low. For it to work, the ETS depends on the price of the units of carbon being high enough to give polluters an incentive to reduce their emissions - but the price is to low to do this. Joanna Cabello from Carbon Trade Watch said: “The ETS is not fit for purpose. It has generated windfall profits for polluting corporations, postponed the needed transition away from fossil fuels, and its unintended consequences are locking the EU into another generation of energy production based on fossil fuels." Non EU airlines may be exempted from inclusion in the ETS for one year, if this is endorsed by the EU member states - this is still to happen. If it is not endorsed they will need to submit their allowances in April, as will EU airlines. The cost of these carbon allowances is now very low indeed.
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David Cameron’s EU speech is grave news for our environment
Tony Juniper, writing in the Guardian, on David Cameron's speech on 24th January about the UK and the EU, says his comments are bad news for the environment. Cameron said: "we need to examine whether the balance is right in so many areas where the European Union has legislated including on the environment." Some ministers see EU laws, including the Habitats directive and the Water Framework directive, as constraints to "growth" and believe they need to be weakened in order to promote economic activity. In reality, environmental policies and laws are essential for maintaining people's well-being, especially in a crowded country like ours. George Osborne, In his 2011 autumn statement, said of the EU Habitats directive that it placed "ridiculous costs on British businesses". Defra could find no evidence of that being the case. Aviation is subject to EU regulations on noise, on air quality and on its carbon emissions through the ETS. It would be unlikely we would have even these controls if the UK was not within the EU.
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Architects, Grimshaw, with complicated London Hub City proposal, for future airport capacity. Bit of an unrealistic muddle.
Grimshaw, a firm of architects that have offices in London, have put forward their own idea for what should happen about airport capacity in the south east. Their idea is to focus on London, the city, as the hub rather than any one airport. They want to have a 3rd runway at Heathrow, so it can deal with problems like snow, and then link London from Stansted, Gatwick, Luton and an airport in the Thames estuary, by high speed rail to London No one airport would be the main hub. They rather unrealistically anticipate that many transit passengers would want to break their journey at Heathrow, then travel into London on a special ticket on fast rail, to do a bit of tourism and spending, before getting their return flight. This scheme needs to have very efficient immigration and baggage transfer facilities to avoid being a nightmare. The report questions whether the view of the airlines, on the need for a hub airport, should dominate the planning of capacity for London. It also says that: “It is extremely difficult to predict what will happen to aviation beyond the next few years. Recent decades have demonstrated this” And it cites Stansted’s decline. However, they say “Looking ahead, we might confidently predict growth in aviation”.
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New research suggests a hub airport (eg. Thames estuary) for London cannot be built without public subsidy
A report by the economic consultants, Oxera, commissioned by the Commons Transport Committee has shown that a massive hub airport in the Thames estuary would only be viable if it had a subsidy, from UK taxpayers, of some £10 - 30 billion (in today's money). Oxera looked at various scenarios, and found that otherwise such an airport would not be viable or provide the sorts of returns that a private investor would require. Depending on the airport's design, it could cost £20 - £50 billion. The potential impact on Heathrow and other airports - and necessary compensation - were had to be taken into account, and would have an impact on a new hub airport's commercial viability. Transport committee inquiry chairman Louise Ellman said: "The results suggest a new airport would require public investment and have considerable impact on Heathrow and other London airports. The research findings also shed significant light on the scale of investment required to deliver essential related surface transport links for any new airport. "We hope this work delivers something new to a crucial debate."
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easyJet had 10 million business passengers in 2012, up from 9 million in 2011
Easyjet carried more than 10 million business travellers during 2012. That is compared to around 9 million in 2011 and some 8 million in 2010. The total number of passengers is around 50 million per year, so business is some 18% or so. Easyjet added that it expected to benefit from a deal signed in November to provide flights to employees working in the Scottish public sector for trips between London and Scotland. In September, a year after offering free flights to MPs returning to deal with the summer riots, easyJet was added to the list of preferred airlines for both Houses of Parliament. A deal for one year allows cheaper flights than flag carriers for European flights, and works through the Parliament travel management company Hillgate Travel.
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Turkey plans to build a 6-runway mega airport near Istanbul to be one of the world’s largest
Turkey is planning to build one of the world’s biggest airports, and one larger than anything in Europe, costing some $5bn. It wants to make Istanbul a global hub and boost its chances of getting the Olympics in 2020. Turkey is well situated geographically for traffic between the USA and Europe, and the Far East. It is therefore in competition with other Middle East and Gulf countries, which are also building mega-sized airports, such as Dubai and Doha (capital of Qatar). A tender will be held in may for the Turkish airport. This would be the third airport for Istanbul, which already has Ataturk airport, and Sabiha airport - which handle around 45 million and 15 million passengers respectively per year. The new airport will be near the Black Sea, and is anticipated to be able to cope with 150 million passengers per year. By contrast, Heathrow deals with some 69 million, and Atlanta - the world's busiest airport - handles some 90 million per year. The plans are for the new 6 runway airport to be open by 2017.
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DfT night flight proposals might cut noise misery for thousands under Heathrow flight paths
The DfT has launched its consultation on the new night flight regime. The intention is partly to examine what could be done to make life easier for residents near Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted - while not unduly affecting the airlines. Heathrow has a much larger noise problem than the other two airports, due to the number of flights, the geography of their flight paths, and the sheer numbers overflown. There is also the problem that the planes that come in at night - some 16 per night between 11.30pm and 6am are from long haul destinations, and are larger, heavier and noisier planes than those for short haul European destinations. There are also around 60 flights per night at Heathrow between 6 - 7am. The consultation proposes a range of measures to cut the noise nuisance, such as requiring aircraft to have a steeper angle of descent into the airport than the current 3 degrees. Another proposal is to reduce the proportion of flights landing from the east from the current 70%, which could lead to an estimated 110,000 people experiencing less noise as a result, thought another 15,000 people would face more disruption.
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Operational freedoms trial at Heathrow to end a month early, on 28th February
Operational Freedom trials at Heathrow started in November 2011 and ended in February 2012. The second phase of the trial started in July 2012 and due to go on until the end of March 2013. In November 2012, BAA announced that two parts of the trails would not take place (Phase 2, Operational Freedoms 2 and 3 – about delaying flights from 4.30 to 5.00am in exchange for more flights from 5.30am to 6am; and re-directing departing aircraft from their route sooner after take-off). Simon Burns has now announced that the trials will end a month early, on 28 February 2013. Some specific tests scheduled for March will be brought forward into February, which will accommodate the space left behind by the early morning arrivals freedom being inoperable during the trial period. Simon Burns says: "The revised end date will enable the overall analysis of the trial to begin sooner and support the government’s objective, as announced in the Autumn Statement, to bring forward the consultation and final decisions by ministers on whether an operational freedoms regime of some form should be adopted on a more permanent basis at Heathrow."
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Flybe plans 300 job cuts in revamp programme
Regional airline Flybe is planning to cut about 300 jobs as part of a programme to return the carrier to profitability in 2013-14. The Exeter-based airline said the cuts would lower UK staff numbers by 10%, reducing costs by £35m. Flybe , which reported a loss of £1.3m in the 6 months to 30 September., said it did not expect "significant" changes to the number of its UK bases or routes, but said it would be reviewing its network. Flybe will reorganise itself into two divisions, with one to cover all UK-based scheduled flight services, and the other to cover all outsourced services such as contract flying and training. The job losses will be seen in the Flybe UK business, with 20% of management posts going and 10% of support and production roles being cut. As well as job cuts, Flybe said it would be seeking to cut costs with suppliers, start a fuel efficiency programme and introduce more automated check-ins.
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Gateway Associates produces report on UK hub airport capacity
A small organisation called Gateway Associates, set up by former MP Paul Clark, has today launched its report on future UK hub airport capacity, to the aviation interest group in Parliament . Gateway Associates sent out questions to an unknown number of organisations to assess their views,and have now produced their report compiling the responses. 67 organisations replied, including some such as Hong Kong airports. There is no information in the report on those who did not respond - and no indication of whether any attempt was made to find a balanced mix of organisations to reflect a realistic mix of opinion. Gateway are opposed to an airport in the Thames estuary. They stress that climate and environmental issues need to be considered by the Davies Commission. The report is strangely keen that Heathrow should not be overlooked (where the funding for the report came from is not disclosed). It says: "Regardless of what decisions are made about a Thames Estuary Airport, a phased plan for the long term future of Heathrow must be developed which meets the needs of business and the aviation sector in London and the South East." It also recommends that a decision on airport capacity needs to be made quickly.
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Heathrow air pollution in relation to 2013 being the “Year of Air”
The European Commission has announced that 2013 is the ‘Year of Air’ with key European air pollution legislation up for review. The review represents a tremendous opportunity to improve public health by tightening air quality standards. Clean Air in London (CAL) believes that key outcomes from the ‘Year of Air’ must include continuity and the further tightening of health and legal protections. Increasing ‘flexibility’ in air pollution laws would weaken existing health and legal protections and is therefore unacceptable. There is a consultation by the EC, on options for the revision of the EU Thematic Strategy on air pollution and related policies, with the closing date on 4 March 2013. Heathrow is a major contributor to air pollution in West London, both from the airport itself and associated road traffic. Information from Hillingdon Council showed a clear correlation between the number of air transport movements and the levels of NOx.
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Heathrow residents disappointed there is still no night flight ban in the DfT consultation
Commenting on the publication today of the DfT's consultation into a new night flight regime at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted, HACAN (the Heathrow Association for the Control of Aircraft Noise) said is was disappointed that the Government has still not committed itself to a night flight ban. However, they have welcomed the fact that the Government is prepared to look at measures which could mitigate the noise. These include increasing the angle of descent on approach; guaranteed respite periods; changing the existing scheduling or operating bans which affect the noisiest aircraft types. John Stewart, Chair of HACAN, which represents residents under the Heathrow flight paths, said: “We are very clear that we want a ban on night flights before 6 o’clock and a progressive reduction between 6am and 7am. Many people under the Heathrow flight paths don’t need an alarm clock; the first plane wakes them at 4.30 am.”
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DfT announces start of 3 month consultation on night flight regime at Heathrow, Gatwick & Stansted
The government has begun a 3 month consultation into night flights at Heathrow, Gatwick and Stansted Airports. It is calling for views and evidence on "the effectiveness of the current regime, the costs and benefits of future options and airlines' fleet replacement plans". The consultation closes on 22nd April 2013. Transport Minister Simon Burns says: "This consultation includes a review of current evidence on the costs of night flights, particularly noise, and the benefits of these flights. It sets out our thinking on how we would expect to appraise the policy options for the next night flights regime." The government will publish the 2nd consultation later this year. It will include specific proposals for the new regime, such as the number of permitted night flights. The proposals in the 2nd consultation will be informed by the evidence received from this 1st stage consultation. The Dft says it aims to strike "a fair balance between the interests of those affected by the noise disturbance and those of the airports, passengers and the UK economy."
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Manchester Council to cut share in MAG from 55% to 35.5% and 9 other councils cut theirs from 45% to 29%
The Manchester Evening News looked at the recent purchase of Stansted airport, by MAG, and assessed what this means for Manchester taxpayer, Manchester airport and the region. 10 councils currently own MAG and they have not had to pay anything towards the deal. The cash has been raised through a combination of MAG selling a 35.5% stake in itself to IFM and agreeing a new debt package with its banks. The deal will see Manchester Council reduce its stake in MAG from 55% to 35.5%. The other 9 councils, which currently have a 5% stake each, will share equally the remaining 29% of MAG. After buying Stansted, MAG will control nearly 19% of the UK aviation market, and this may strengthen its bargaining power when negotiating with airlines. The 10 councils hope to get a larger annual dividend now. In 2012, £20m was paid out, of which £11m went to Manchester and £1m each to the other 9 councils. MAG hopes to increase profits at Stansted, which is operating now at 47% of capacity, by increasing income from shops, restaurants and bars.
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MAG have no plans for a 2nd Stansted runway but want more airlines other than Ryanair
The Times reports that Stansted's new owners, Manchester Airports Group, do not have any plans to build a second runway. MAG take up ownership at the end of February. Industry Funds Management helped MAG buy the airport, by taking a 35.5% stake. It told the Times that it now wants to attract other airlines, as Ryanair has around 70% of flights at Stansted. Even perhaps some full service airlines. Stansted no longer even makes full use of its one runway, with the number of passengers falling from almost 24 million in 2007 to some 17.4 million in 2012, due to easyJet taking many of its flights to Gatwick instead, and the closure of some small low cost airlines. IFM said the airport is only working at about 47% capacity. Charlie Cornish, MAG’s chief executive, indicated the company had little appetite for competing with Heathrow. He called Stansted “the London airport for Europe”.
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Snow problems at Heathrow being used as opportunity to lobby for another runway
Around 2 inches of snow at Heathrow has caused many cancellations and delays to flights. Meanwhile, three inches of snow at Gatwick has not caused any significant disturbance. And Gatwick only has one runway. Heathrow claims that poor visibility conditions mean more separation distance has to be allowed for planes, and thus imply that they could do better with more runways. It seems the snow is being used as an opportunity to stress how difficult it is for the airport to operate at over 98% of capacity. However, much of the problem appears to be internal organisation within Heathrow, rather than any lack of runway space. Heathrow Airport has spent £36m on its Winter Resilience Programme since 2010 and now has 130 snow-clearing vehicles and equipment. But this does not appear to have been very effective. Gatwick spent £8 million on "snow kit", the airport's snow-clearing capacity is now on a par with icy Oslo, and say its snow-clearing equipment now comprises 98 vehicles, up from the 47 it had in 2011. Gatwick said the 50 cancellations it had made were all due to disruption at other airports. So don't be taken in by Heathrow using this as "proof" it needs to expand.
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Stansted to be sold for £1.5bn to Manchester Airports Group
Manchester Airports Group has won the bidding process to buy Stansted, at £1.5 billion - higher than commentators though the price would be, when bidding closed two days ago. MAG will now own Stansted, Manchester, East Midlands and Bournemouth airports. Heathrow Airport Holdings, will retain only 4 UK airports compared with its original 7 - Heathrow, Glasgow, Southampton and Aberdeen. The sale is expected to close by the end of February. MAG also includes the commercial property company, MAG Developments, which has a £350m portfolio across its existing 3 airports and is leading the £650m Enterprise Zone development, Airport City, at Manchester. MAG also runs businesses in car parking, airport security, firefighting, engineering, advertising and motor transport. As part of the transaction, Australian infrastructure investment group Industry Funds Management (IFM) will become an investor in MAG, invest new equity and take a 35.5% stake in the enlarged group. Gatwick sold for £1.51 billion and Edinburgh sold for £807 million.
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Blog by John Stewart on Heathrow: “It’s the Politics, Stupid”
In a new blog, John Stewart writes that it will be the politics - not economics, noise or climate change –-that will determine where, if anywhere, new runways will be built. Many politicians now understand this. Willie Walsh of BA understands it. But it appears that those still backing a 3rd - even a 4th - runway at Heathrow have not fully understood the extent of the political opposition. Across London almost three quarters of a million Londoners are affected by aircraft noise already. The extent of the opposition there would be, on noise grounds alone, if another runway affected hundreds of thousands more Londoners, would be immense. That coalition that fought the 3rd runway plans is merely dormant, and it would come back - more confident than before with even more opposition. It has provided inspiration to campaigners across Europe – from Munich to Siena – who are now seeing off their runway proposals. The reality is that this opposition would make another Heathrow runway politically undeliverable.
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Boeing 787: Dreamliner’s lithium ion batteries probed
Lithium-ion batteries used in the 787are central to the design of a plane which is billed as being lighter and 20% more fuel efficient than earlier generations of jet. This type of battery has an unusually high energy density, so units can be smaller and thus lighter for a given amount of power than traditional batteries. All planes have batteries, but the Dreamliner needs especially powerful ones because its control systems are driven entirely by electrical signals in place of the hydraulic controls. Boeing is not the only aircraft maker to use lithium batteries - there is one such battery on the Airbus A380 but the Dreamliner features these batteries on a much more extensive scale than other recent planes. Lithium ion batteries can be prone to "thermal runaway". Once the battery reaches a certain temperature, it can start self-heating with potentially disastrous results. The units are also seen as especially vulnerable to problems and leaks of battery fluid. Once the problems start, the fluid is prone to ignite. Boeing has bet its future on the success of the 787 and needs to sell 1,000 to break even.
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